Recent polls/ betting intentions to mull over.
The first puts UKIP ahead of the Liberal Democrats, just. Not a major surprise, indeed what does surprise me is that the lead is not greater. The Liberal Democrats, for so long the party of the 'protest vote' is finding out that sharing power brings its electoral consequences. Some people are looking for an alternative to the Con/Lib Dem/Labour trio and UKIP may provide a home, particularly given current anti-EU sentiment.
The Independent candidate in London Mayor is considered by the bookies to be running third, ahead of the Liberal Democrats and UKIP. I doubt she will pull off a first or second place after the first round of the count, but it will be interesting to see how second preference votes are redistributed.
I deplore the intrusion of national issues into local elections, but it is inevitable. I recommend that in local elections the voter should look at the calibre, record and promises of each candidate and vote for the one they consider the best, regardless of party allegiance.