Goodbye EU?

Interesting article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11886592/Treaty-change-is-only-way-to-end-migrant-crisis.html

EU democratic deficit

Reference has been made in previous posts on this blog concerning the issue of the democratic deficit in the European Union.  The link is to an excellent article on this matter.  Well worth a read should you be pro or anti EU, or agnostic.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/essay-on-why-germany-should-hold-a-referendum-on-europe-a-854000.html

And now, something different:

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/1624/as_the_eu_falters_a_new_empire_could_rise_in_eastern_europe

Lords reform scuppered

The electorate dispensed with the Liberal Democrats AV proposals with a resounding 'no'.  The Coalition agreement linked the AV referendum with proposals for parliamentary constituency boundary revision, not with House of Lords reform.  Now that Clegg has been given a bloody nose over Lords reform by backbench Tories he is retaliating by refusing to support constituency boundary reform.  Says all that needs to be said about the Liberal Democrats.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2012/08/andrew-lilico-the-conservatives-havent-welched-on-the-coalition-agreement-but-the-lib-dems-have.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9455912/Nick-Clegg-shows-his-true-colours-on-equal-votes.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9458909/Cameron-to-push-ahead-with-boundary-reform-despite-Lib-Dems-wrecking-vow.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidhughes/100175026/the-tories-to-lose-a-by-election-so-what-its-lib-dem-opportunism-on-boundary-changes-we-should-worry-about/

I doubt the electorate would have put up with another layer of well paid party hacks in a reformed upper chamber, hence the refusal to put the issue of Lords to a referendum.  As for as I am aware the list system was to have been used for elections to the upper chamber, the list order being determined by the political parties.  Jobs for the boys and girls who follow the party line.

Of course the main beneficiary of AV and Lords reform would have been the Liberal Democrats who would have become the perpetual tail wagging the dog.  Back room deals between the parties would become the order of the day, and hang the electorate.

Really, the Conservatives should be looking to ditch the Liberal Democrats.  A press report today

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9455794/Labour-poll-lead-widens-as-Tories-agitate-for-UKIP-coalition.html

states that six out of ten Tory activists would like the Conservative Party to enter into a coalition with UKIP.

See also: http://networkedblogs.com/AJOwf

One assumes that the main reason for this is strong anti- EU sentiment within the Conservative Party membership.  The Liberal Democrats are the most pro-EU major political party in England, which makes for strange bedfellows within the Coalition.

See also:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9458069/Lords-reform-Lib-Dem-minister-breaks-code-by-voting-against-boundary-changes.html

UPDATE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9459046/Clegg-cares-more-about-revenge-than-fairness.html

Battle lines drawn

Sources in the German government are playing down the likelihood of a successful outcome of the EU summit. It is a well used stratagem to play down the chances of success before an important event, but it strikes a discordant note in view of the upbeat initial response to the Merkel/Sarkozy meeting.

As this blog has stated before one o th key issues is what happens after the summit meeting?  How will decisions taken be implemented, what is the process?  Much will depend on what is decided: will it be the 17 eurozone countries which have to agree the way forward or the 27 EU countries and the risks of referenda.  Would a referendum decision by Ireland potentially scupper the whole process?

An excellent article on what happens next:  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802221,00.html

In the UK the Prime Minister David Cameron is coming under severe pressure, particularly from Conservative MPs,  as he seeks to do what is necessary to save the eurozone (a forlorn hope?) as well as securing protection from a financial services tax, repatriating some powers and binding undertakings that the 17 eurozone countries will not form a cabal that will dominate the EU to the potential detriment of the 10 non-eurozone countries in membership of the EU.  I fear there will be a lot of disgrunted MPs following the summit.

The UK government has stated there will not be a referendum on any changes within the EU goverance structure as they will not involve the transfer of any powers from the UK to the EU, particularly if the Rompuy protocol  proposals are adopted.  Opponents argue that this is a sleight of hand, as a two-tier Europe will inevitably reduce the UK's power within the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8940014/Eurozone-debt-crisis-David-Cameron-failing-to-stand-up-for-Britain-says-Douglas-Carswell.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100013687/camerons-threat-to-veto-treaty-change-is-just-hot-air/

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/now-boris-piles-more-referendum-pressure-on-cameron.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100122195/pmqs-exposes-david-camerons-vulnerability-on-europe/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100122156/david-cameron-gets-bitten-by-ed-miliband-on-europe-then-mauled-by-owen-paterson/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100122168/pmqs-flashman-meets-his-waterloo-as-ed-miliband-looks-more-eurosceptic-than-our-tory-pm/

UPDATE from Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802299,00.html
Four ideas to save the common currency.

Further sources: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013697/if-one-eu-bail-out-fund-flops-create-two/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100122263/if-were-not-pressing-for-a-repatriation-of-power-what-was-all-the-eurosceptic-rhetoric-for/ leading on to:  http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100096857/its-precisely-because-we-need-domestic-reform-that-we-must-leave-the-eu/

The temperature is rising

Plenty of heat being generated, but will there be light?

The link below leads to a report on Cameron's negotiating position at the imminent EU summit.  Will he achieve his desired outcomes?  We shall know soon, but of one thing we can be sure: it will not stop the clamour for repatriation of powers or withdrawal from the EU.  What happens should Cameron  use the veto?  Uncharted waters.  However we must keep firmly in view that the proposals from Merkozy and von Rompuy only deal with control and enforcement of national budgets and have nothing to offer issues of growth and dealing with the democratic deficit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8939421/Eurozone-debt-crisis-safeguard-the-City-or-Ill-veto-new-EU-treaty-warns-David-Cameron.html

The Rompuy document: http://www.scribd.com/doc/74989322/Van-Rompuy-report-Towards-a-stronger-economic-union . See also: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16062378

The impression is that the EU elites still do not 'get it'. In this context an interesting report on comments by Jack Straw.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8938484/The-arrogance-of-eurozone-elites-could-kill-the-European-Union.html

Finally the Germans are becoming nervous as citizens of other nations begin to draw comparisons with the less savoury aspects of German history.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801982,00.html
Europe shudders at Germany's new-found power.


Heating up nicely.

An uneasy calm

The lull before the storm?  The markets are marking time, waiting for the outcome of the EU summit.  Next week could see a veritable storm, but which way will markets move?  The hope must be upwards,  but the fear is that there will be a negative reaction to the outcome of the summit.

The portents for good news are thin on the ground, the likelihood the news will be bad is a strongly held view.

The Standard & Poor's assessment of the position in the eurozone has gone down like a lead balloon. What did S & P say?

"Policymakers appear to have acted only in response to mounting market pressures, rather than pro-actively leading market expectations in a way that might have better supported and strengthened investor confidence. We take the view that the defensive and piecemeal nature of this response has helped expand the crisis of confidence in the eurozone."

IMF chief Christine Lagarde was equally dismissive of the Merkozy plan. "It’s not in itself sufficient and a lot more will be needed for the overall situation to be properly addressed and for confidence to return."

See: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013647/sp-has-no-choice-euroland-risks-bankruptcy-on-currrent-policies/  and

UPDATE: From Spiegel on S&P downgrade fears:  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802244,00.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8937300/The-fog-on-the-Rhines-all-mein-all-mein-the-fog-on-the-Rhines-all-mein.html

To add insult to injury the EFSF  bailout fund may be downgraded:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8938191/SandP-puts-EFSF-bailout-fund-on-review-for-downgrade.html

An interesting report from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16045668  which includes the following analysis.

Analysis

Chris Morris BBC News, Brussels

---

Diplomats from some of the smaller member states say they need to have a look at the fine print of the Franco-German proposals, because they want to know exactly how they plan to make this work.

It was important, they believe, to have an aura of confidence and togetherness about them at the beginning of this difficult week, but of course that aura was rapidly punctured by the news from Standard and Poor's. So we're still at a very difficult position and there's no guarantee that all countries will automatically sign off on whatever France and Germany suggest.

There's a general feeling that some sovereignty will have to be handed over. The critical question is who to. The smaller countries and Germany would like the European Commission to have a role in that. But France has always been suspicious of handing too much power to institutions in Brussels and would prefer to see those powers still in the hands of member states.

The issue of democratic legitimacy looms large.  What should be the role of the European Parliament?  How will the electorates of the sovereign states be given a say on the proposals?  The omens are not good.  the poor bloody infantry, the citizenry are mere onlookers.  Twice in the last hundred years the citizens of Europe have paid the price for political hubris.  This time it is not war but austerity being imposed as a consequence of the decision to create a flawed structure - the eurozone.

In the UK attempts are being made to ramp up the pressure on Cameron to hold a referendum.

See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8937469/Debt-crisis-Tory-Eurosceptic-Douglas-Carswell-turns-up-heat-on-Cameron-over-referendum.html

Eurozone not saved yet.

I had planned to refrain from futher comment on the eurozone crisis until after the EU summit, but events today have done nothing to persuade me that we are any nearer a solution to the problem than before the Sarkozy/Merkel meeting.  It is all very well planning for the future, but the problem is here and now.

For  opinions on the meeting see:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8936828/Euro-enters-the-last-chance-saloon.html  and

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013624/zilch-again-form-merkozy/

See also: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801858,00.html

The bombshell from Standard & Poor's this evening could derail any rescue strategy.  See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8937162/SandP-threat-of-rating-cuts-may-hit-eurozone-rescue.html   and  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16042346

Some other interesting links:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121724/a-eurozone-treaty-and-the-merkozy-challenge-to-britain-in-or-out-mr-cameron/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8934421/Eurozone-leaders-need-to-agree-on-a-plan-for-deeper-fiscal-union.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8937224/Heroic-Ireland-can-do-no-more-it-is-up-to-Europe-now.html

Cameron's dilemma

The focus of attention is shifting to how David Cameron will play his cards (insignificant as they are) at the forthcoming EU summit.  Not being in the eurozone makes the UK a peripheral player in sorting out the wreckage, nevertheless the impact of changes made to the governance of the eurozone will impact heavily.  The eurozone 'bloc' will be able to outvote the ten nations not in the zone. The risk is not only of a two-tier EU, but one in which the seventeen eurozone countries can act in concert against the non-eurozone members.  We could however finish up with even more tiers as I have argued before on this blob. See *

Cameron is also faced with the problem of the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party clamouring for repatriation of powers or even outright withdrawal from the EU.  He has been bruised by the 81 Conservative MPs who rebelled against a three-line whip after the EU referendum debate and by the behaviour of Mr Clegg, the Deputy Prime-Minister who has conveniently forgotten the Liberal Democrat pledge on a referendum made before the last general election. 

Demands for a referendum are becoming more strident and more serious for Cameron. Ian Duncan Smith, regarded by many in the Conservative Party as one of the most successful ministers in the Coalition government, has added his voice to the clamour for a referendum.  He has form as an opponent of EU integration, witness his opposition to the Maastricht Treaty. 

Ever since the fateful decision of Edward Heath to take the UK into what is now the EU, 'Europe' has been a divisive influence within the Conservative Party.  In recent years many Conservatives have decamped to the United Kingdom Independence Party.  Although UKIP has had no success at Westminster elections, it influenced the result of the 2010 general election to the extent that in some seats Conservatives failed to win, thereby thwarting an overall majority for Cameron.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8933481/Poll-boost-for-David-Cameron-ahead-of-EU-showdown.html

* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/8932819/The-UK-must-stand-up-against-Brussels.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8933773/Eurozone-crisis-The-changes-ahead-need-the-will-of-the-people.html

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/vote-for-an-eu-referendum-and-youll-plunge-britains-economy-into-chaos.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121561/iain-duncan-smith-on-david-cameron-treaty-change-and-a-european-referendum/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8934746/Iain-Duncan-Smith-calls-for-referendum-on-European-fiscal-union.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8935685/Downing-St-insists-there-will-be-no-EU-referendum-despite-Iain-Duncan-Smiths-demands.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8934867/David-Cameron-needs-to-keep-his-word-on-EU-reform.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100121605/euro-crisis-why-david-cameron-should-take-the-german-threat-seriously/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121724/a-eurozone-treaty-and-the-merkozy-challenge-to-britain-in-or-out-mr-cameron/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801756,00.html   UK obstructing EU foreign policy.

A cure for insomnia

Should nothing else work, a read of the European Parliament website is guaranteed to send you to sleep....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

See: http://www.theparliament.com/home/

However the website has had some critical articles posted on it recently, far removed from the usual fare of balm and self-congratulation.

See: http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/former-eu-commissioner-says-break-up-of-euro-is-inevitable/

http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/eu-sidelined-at-crunch-global-aid-summit/

Could it be that the comatose group, otherwise known as Members of the European Parliament, are beginning to realise something is not as it should be in the European Project.

In this context see:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8933236/Eurozone-crisis-the-US-has-to-ride-to-the-rescue-once-again.html

Angela Merkel is now making seriously uncompromising noises about fiscal union: it is to go ahead, whatever anybody else says or thinks. No more messing. And Nicolas Sarkozy seems to be accepting this – for the moment. But watch this space. Rather belatedly, the European Parliament has woken up to the threat this represents to democratic principle: it has announced that if tax and spending policy is to be decided centrally by the EU, then it, being the only body elected by the people, should have co-responsibility for those decisions with the European Commission. In other words, since fiscal policy will be out of the hands of national governments, and therefore beyond the reach of a population’s own democratic process, it really ought to be accountable to some representative body. (The most extraordinary thing about this is that it was just an afterthought.)

Two-faced Liberal Democrats

Taken from:  http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/vote-for-an-eu-referendum-and-youll-plunge-britains-economy-into-chaos.html:

The European Union may be about to change fundamentally but that doesn't mean the British people will get a referendum to approve or reject that change. The so-called 'referendum lock' passed by the Coalition is only triggered when powers pass from Britain to the EU. Ministers decide when and if those powers have passed and the suspicion is that a move towards fiscal union by the €urozone's seventeen will be interpreted as not affecting UK sovereignty. That was certainly Nick Clegg's position on this morning's Andrew Marr programme*:

NICK CLEGG: Well I don't think there needs to be a referendum for the simple reason that the change...
ANDREW MARR interrupts: The Prime Minister's promised one. If there is a treaty change, he's promised a referendum.
NICK CLEGG: No, the referendum will only take place if there is an additional surrender of sovereignty from us to the European Union, to Brussels.
ANDREW MARR: I thought any substantial treaty change will trigger a referendum. That's what David Cameron said.
NICK CLEGG: No, no, no. Let me be very clear. The test, which we've legislated on, is if we, the United Kingdom, give up more sovereignty in a big way to the European Union.

Compare and contrast with the following:

 

 

Come on Clegg, let's see you keep ONE promise.

The European Parliament: silence is deafening

Throughout the eurozone debacle I have not seen any reference to debates on the subject in the European Parliament.  However, I am not surprised, it is an expensive talking shop which over the years has failed the electorate.  It is toothless, real power is vested the unelected Commission. 

For a flavour of what this dysfunctional organisation engages in go to:

http://www.theparliament.com/home/

It is quite mind-boggling and indicates just how much sovereignty nation states have lost.  Whilst the euro collapses it has found time to engage in this:

http://www.theparliament.com/policy-focus/justice/justice-article/newsarticle/citizens-may-be-compelled-to-appear-before-eu-parliament/

Excellent article on the EU

Well worth a read:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-who-will-say-were-better-off-out-of-europe-6257903.html