Election fever in Rusthall

The election for the vacant Tunbridge Wells Borough Council seat in Rusthall is being contested by four parties:  Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP.  Until recently UKIP held both seats in Rusthall, once gaining a seat from the incumbent Tory Council Leader, but lost them.  This time I have not seen any election communication.

The Tories have delivered two leaflets.  Labour and the Lib Dems distributed election leaflets and the day before the election both parties delivered 'last minute' leaflets.


Labour and the Lib Dems both claim that they are the party to vote for to oust the Tories!  Never mind what the parties policies are, vote for us to keep out someone else is the childish message.

Rusthall's councillors

Rusthall is represented on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council by two UKIP councillors.  One is due to retire this year and has been selected to contest Derby South at the general election.  Will he be contesting the council seat?

The other councillor has been selected to contest Thanet North.  It is rumoured he has moved to the constituency.  Will he be continuing as a councillor?  His attendance record at TWBC meetings in 2014 was 40%.

Kent Tories wobble but not toppled.

The Conservative held on to control of Kent County Council....just.

UKIP came from nowhere to win 17 seats, Labour failed to regain all the seats lost in 2009 and the Liberal Democrats trod water.  Had UKIP been able to mount contests in more Conservative seats, as distinct from fielding 'paper' candidates, we could have been looking at a council with no overall control.

As it is the Conservatives will form the cabinet.  We await with interest signs that opposition councillors are capable of mounting  effective scrutiny.

UKIP gained Tunbridge Wells East from the Conservatives.  A good result, followed by a stab in the back.

http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Successful-Tunbridge-Wells-UKIP-candidate/story-18881621-detail/story.html#axzz2SENnnEGj

The UKIP challenge in Tunbridge Wells North came to nothing as the electorate followed the lead of Capel's electorate last year and refused to elect Brian Ransley.

The English Democrats had a hopeless campaign and dismal results.  At least they brought comedy to the elections with a candidate living at a non existent address and two candidates who live in Swanley, stood under other names and gave as their home address a location outside the county.

The English Democrats performance in Kent was matched  in Doncaster where they lost the Mayoral election having been successful in 2009.  It wasn't even close.  Hower, in typical English Democrat fashion, a gloss was put on the heavy defeat.

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Cload and dagger

The county council elections are upon us.  Expect an avalanche of election literature in Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives seek to repulse UKIP's charge and forays by the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

The most intriguing contest is in Tunbridge Wells East.  The Conservatives held the seat in a by-election last year, just - the seat is a three-way marginal.

The recent surge by UKIP in the opinion polls must encourage the party to believe it can win the seat.  The Liberal Democrats also hope to win as the electoral division includes their strongest ward.

The decision of Terry Cload to stand as an Independent adds to the uncertainty in predicting the result.  Mr Cload is a former Conservative councillor on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and a former Vice-Chairman of the local Conservative Association.

In 2012 an Independent achieved a resounding victory in Pembury at the Borough Council elections. He is also a former Conservative councillor.

Tunbridge Wells North should be interesting.   The long-serving Conservative member was de-selected.  One ward in the division is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal.  Labour has won two seats on the Borough Council in one of the other wards making up the division.  The 'surprise' candidate is the former Conservative borough councillor, Brian Ransley, who is standing for UKIP.  Mr Ransley has had a few mentions on this blog.

Finally, the contest in Tunbridge Wells West could produce a surprise.  Normally a very safe Conservative seat,  UKIP has won two seats from the Conservatives on the Borough Council in Rusthall ward.  Last year UKIP gained a seat by ousting the Leader of the Borough Council.

From Kent Old Grumpy

http://kentoldgrumpy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-rise-of-ukip.html

British Democratic Party: grim future for English Democrats

The problems facing Nick Griffin and the British National Party are well-documented: up to the gunnel in debt, riven by internal strife and losing members in droves..  Matters came to a head when Andrew Brons and Griffin contested the leadership of the BNP, the latter winning by a very small margin.  Brons resigned from the BNP and, as expected, now has formed a new party called the British Democratic Party.

I would not expect many of the remaining BNP members to jump ship and join the BDP.  But what of those who have left?  Some dropped out of party politics, some joined other right-wing parties, but the greatest influx of ex-BNP members was enjoyed by the English Democrats, including two members of Brons' staff.

Will the English Democrats retain their ex-BNP members?  They must be hoping beyond hope that they do.  Some ED members left the party when the ex-BNP influx began, joined the Conservative Party, or UKIP or gave up party politics.  I very much doubt ex- ED members will rejoin the party should the ex-BNP members shuffle off (or run) to the BDP.

The recent electoral success of UKIP has been a disaster for the English Democrats.  The ED 'puffed-up' its chances of beating UKIP in the Rotherham by-election.  The posts prior to the election on the website English Passport (recently re-named Kingdom of England Passport) controlled by a leading officer of the ED are hilarious.  http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/english-democrats-humiliated-by-ukip.html

Having failed to demolish  UKIP (which in any event was not going to happen) the ED now is about to be assailed by the  BDP.

There doesn't seem to be anywhere for the English Democrats to go except downward, which in one sense is a shame as it is a party with a clear English civic nationalist message: that England should have an English parliament within a federal UK.  Unfortunately the party has accrued toxic baggage, so English civic nationalists will have to to look elsewhere for a political home.

English Democrats humiliated by UKIP (and the BNP).

So much for English Democrats' boasts.

Rotherham by-election result:

• Sarah Champion (Lab) 9,866 (46.25%, +1.62%)
• Jane Collins (UKIP) 4,648 (21.79%, +15.87%)
• Marlene Guest (BNP) 1,804 (8.46%, -1.96%)
• Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1,778 (8.34%)
• Simon Wilson (Cons) 1,157 (5.42%, -11.32%)
• David Wildgoose (Eng Dem) 703 (3.30%)
• Simon Copley (Ind) 582 (2.73%, -3.58%)
• Michael Beckett (Lib Dems) 451 (2.11%, -13.87%)
• Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 (1.22%)
• Paul Dickson (Ind) 51 (0.24%)
• Clint Bristow (ND) 29 (0.14%)

The English Passport blog forecast (or the bookmakers are always correct!).

Rotherham By-Election – English Democrats, Respect, UKIP and Labour – the last 4 by English Passport Rotherham By-Election - English Democrats, Respect, UKIP and Labour - the last 4 The bookies for the Rotherham have had a very difficult election to keep tabs on. William Hill have closed their books for the second time. However, the final four going into Election Day are English Democrats, Respect, UKIP and Labour. Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and indeed BNP and Greens are history in Rotherham. It's going to be a very interesting count ! English Passport | 28 November 2012 at 10:22 pm | Tags: By-Election, David Wildgoose, English Democrats, Labour, News, Respect, Rotherham, UKIP | Categories: By-Election, Conservative & Unionists, English Democrats, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Respect, UKIP | URL: http://wp.me/p1mhUf-1Kw Comment    See all comments And this little gem: On the 2 November 1967, a historic moment to place in British Politics when the Scottish National Party won a By-Election, Hamilton by-election, in Hamilton, South Lanarkshire, Scotland, it was a milestone in the politics of Scotland. Although Robert McIntyre of the Scottish National Party (SNP) had won and briefly held the Motherwell constituency in a by-election during the last months of World War II, in April–July 1945, it was Winnie Ewing's victory in the Hamilton constituency which propelled the SNP, Scottish independence and devolution to the top of the agenda in Scotland. On 29 November 2012, there is the potential for an equal historic moment to take place in British Politics when the English Democrats are set to win the Rotherham By-Election in South Yorkshire, if this occurs, it will be a milestone in the politics of England, and victory by David Wildgoose would propel the English Democrats, self determination for the English People and devolution for England to the top of the agenda in England. It is only hoped that Nick Robinson, the Chief Political Editor of the BBC, takes the time to read the English Democrats Manifesto, before the 29 November 2012, so that if David Wildgoose and the English Democrats are successful on Thursday 29 November 2012, Nick Robinson does not look a complete arse, when he discusses the English Democrats party, with Mr Dimbleby. Not forgetting: RESPECT & ENGLISH DEMOCRATS FIGHT IT OUT IN ROTHERHAM AS LABOUR SET TO FINISH THIRD IN BY-ELECTION Posted by English Passport on 22 November 2012 · Leave a Comment  2 Votes Respect & English Democrats fight it out in Rotherham as Labour set to finish Third in By-Election Labour is set to lose the English Seat of Rotherham in South Yorkshire, however it is unclear as to whether the eventual winner will be the Respect Candidate Yvonne Ridley or the English Democrats candidate David Wildgoose. The by-election (which will be held on 29 November) was triggered by Scot Denis MacShane’s resignation over false invoices, Labour will not doubt be punished as a result. The disastrous Labour campaign began at the Labour selection meeting in Rotherham, half of the members present walked out in protest at the party’s failure to include a local figure on the shortlist. This left fewer than 50 to vote on the selection of Sarah Champion, who defeated the only other person on the list, former RAF Wing Commander Sophy Gardner. The walkout was staged by supporters of Mahroof Hussain, a prominent local councillor who was the preferred choice of the membership. As is standard for by-elections, the shortlist was drawn up by Labour’s National Executive Committee, rather than a local selection committee, which chose not to include Hussain. Two way Labour Split The Labour vote has therefore been split in two ways firstly the Respect candidate Yvonne Ridley, a former journalist who famously converted to Islam after her capture by the Taliban, will be taking Labour votes from the ethnic community in Rotherham in a hope to repeat her party’s triumph in Bradford West earlier this year, where George Galloway was re-elected to Westminster. Secondly there is strain on the Labour “patriotic” vote from the English Democrats local Candidate David Wildgoose, who has stood in Rotherham, three times before in 1992, 1994 and 1997, a local man, with friends and family in Rotherham he previously achieved 29.7% of the vote in 1994. The campaign of English Democrat David Wildgoose was given a dramatic boast on 15 November 2012 when the English Democrats achieved 2nd place in Rotherham in the Police & Crime Commissioner Elections with 5,034 votes 15.72% of the vote. Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and UKIP are all at risk of loosing their deposits as the main three parties in Rotherham fight it out – result in one week’s time. Just loved this one: And this.. Only David Wildgoose and the English Democrats can beat Labour in the Rotherham Parliamentary By-Election on Thursday 29 November 2012.Vote David Wildgoose – English Democrats to give England a voice in Parliament.

Rotherham: UKIP's 'Orpington'?

In 1962 the Liberal Party had a famous by-election victory over the  Conservatives at Orpington. Commentators identify this victory as the start of the revival of the Liberal Party.  There were many false dawns after 1962, but merger with the SDP to form the Liberal Democrats strengthened the party.

The Liberal party had a few MPS before the events of 1962, but mostly in the 'Celtic fringes', apart from two seats which were the subject of an electoral pact with the Conservatives (Bolton and Huddersfield).

UKIP has no MPs, but it does have a number of MEPs.  It is not strong in local government, but it has been strengthening its electoral base in recent years.  Will Rotherham be the 'breakthrough' as Brighton was for the Green Party?   The Labour majority will be hard to overturn, although the party has had problems with the candidate selection process which might assist Respect.  The issue of two foster parents having children taken away from them by Rotherham Council on the grounds that the parents belonged to UKIP has caused outrage across the political spectrum.  Will this be reflected in the vote today?  Will disaffected Conservatives vote UKIP as a protest much as they voted Liberal in Orpington in 1962?  We shall know soon enough.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100191811/ukip-are-libertarian-theyre-also-conservative-pro-free-trade-and-anti-mass-immigration-and-theyre-coherent/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9708791/Could-this-be-Ukips-day.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/9710762/Foster-row-Labour-faces-challenge-from-Ukip-in-Rotherham-by-election.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100192106/tonight-ukip-have-a-chance-to-show-the-world-theyre-more-than-just-a-protest-vote-for-angry-tories/

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/11/could-labour-lose-rotherham-election

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2173/whatever_happens_today_ukip_is_breaking_new_ground

Update: 30th November.

A good showing by UKIP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9713243/Ukip-takes-second-place-in-by-elections.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100192252/after-rotherham-ukip-is-now-a-national-populist-party-a-magnet-for-anger-at-the-british-establishment/

http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/after-rotherham-ukip-aims-to-top-the-2014-euro-poll/2031

More updates:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9715909/Ukip-may-yet-gatecrash-the-private-party.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2241257/UKIPs-shelter-politically-homeless-disenchanted-voters-abandon-Tories-Labour.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9717394/Ukip-deserves-to-be-taken-seriously-after-by-elections-surge-says-Vince-Cable.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-rise-and-rise-of-ukip--the-new-party-of-the-protest-voter-8373871.html

http://www.nucleus.uk.net/subscription-confirmed/item/nobody-can-stop-ukip-now

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/world/europe/nigel-farages-anti-eu-message-finds-fans.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

UKIP: how to gain the electorate's support

My earliest recollection of elections is the general election of 1959.  I saw and heard Hugh Gaitskell, the Labour leader, being given a somewhat hostile reception by Nottinghamshire miners at a large open-air meeting in Ollerton.

In 1959 we had moved to Chesterfield, a safe Labour seat.  We were visited by the Liberal candidate, but I was confused by the fact that one of the other candidates stood under the banner 'Conservative and National Liberal'.  It was only some years later that I understood that the National Liberal Party was a split from the Liberal Party.  History repeats itself.  When the Liberal Democrats formed, a merger of the Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party, some Liberals split off and kept the name Liberal Party.  The SDP was a splinter party which defected from the Labour Party.

Back to 1959.  The Liberal Party held 6 seats after the general election.  Without looking it up I think one seat was Orkney & Shetland, another Montgomeryshire, two in the South West - North Devon and North Cornwall?) and one each in Bolton and Huddersfield.  The Lancashire and Yorkshire seats were held as a result of a pact with the Conservatives in the two towns under which the Liberals and Conservatives did not oppose each other in the two seats in each of the two towns.

By 1962 the Conservative government was running out of steam and the Liberal Party had a famous victory at the Orpington by-election.  Many commentators point to the by-election as the starting point for the Liberal revival.  Fifty years of steady growth, setbacks and startling victories.

However, what is often forgotten is that the Liberal Party had been busy in Orpington for many years and had gained control of Orpington Urban District Council.  The Liberal Party recognised then that securing support from the electorate on local issues and building up a strong local organisation was the only way to make a breakthrough at parliamentary elections.  And so it proved: even Chesterfield Borough Council was won by the Liberal Democrats and they won the parliamentary seat.  It took many years to achieve.

The lesson for small parties is that it is essential to build up a strong local base. It is no coincidence that the Green Party's one parliamentary seat is in  a city it controls at local level - Brighton. Norwich is in their sights.

UKIP has to follow the same path.  It must develop its local government base and show it has policies relevant to people in communities: housing estates, villages, towns etc.  Simply banging on about the EU will not bring it victories at national level.  Local policies and good local organisation wins local seats and builds towards winning parliamentary seats.

Down in the swamp....

...something stirs. What can it be?  It's the Uncles.

Uncles commenting

http://englishpassport.org/2012/09/30/skinhead-bigotted-chief-kent-green-stuart-jeffery-does-his-piece-on-the-kent-police-commissioner-elections-whilst-on-drugs/

on this

http://stuartjeffery.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/kent-police-commissioner-elections.html

Dear me.  Whilst the Jeffery article is not to my taste, what can one say about the Uncles 'effort'?  Uncles has 'form'.  Here is a recent example from his blog:

http://englishpassport.org/2012/09/28/ukip-activist-rushed-to-hillingdon-hospital-with-blocked-colon/

Tory faithful sorely tried.

Ok, it is the silly season for press reports and MPs away from Westminster become somewhat braver than when in close proximity to the Whips.  Nevertheless, this weekend has seen unrest on an unprecedented scale amongst Conservative MPs, particularly those with marginal seats

Three stories caught my eye:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/9485509/Coalition-MPs-revolt-over-soaring-rail-fares.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/hands-off-our-land/9484948/Conservative-MPs-revolt-over-new-threat-to-green-belt.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9483273/Gay-marriage-costs-Tories-support-in-the-pews-poll-shows.html

Add to this  list the actual and threatened damage to pensioners' income. The electoral damage the Conservatives are inflicting on themselves puts in serious doubt the party's ability to hold power, either as a majority or minority government, after the next general election.  Miliband must be rubbing his hands with glee.

Then there is 'Europe'.

Hard to discern the Conservatives 'get out of jail card'.  UKIP is eating away at the Conservative membership base and garnering votes from former Conservatives at elections.  Had it not been for UKIP, the Conservatives would not have needed to do the squalid deal with the Liberal Democrats to form the Coalition.  The damage UKIP will inflict on the Conservatives at the next election will be even more serious, unless something changes, but what?

See also:  http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-2191051/Cameron-needs-offer-party-red-meat-seen-lead-Coalition-led-it.html 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2190920/So-price-loonies-fruitcakes-racists-UKIP-Dave.html

Conservatives and UKIP

The general election in 2010 saw the Conservatives snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Instead of an overall majority the Tories were forced into  humiliating negotiations with the Liberal Democrats out of which came the Coalition government: a bastard government as it had no electoral legitimacy.

At the time I suggested the Conservatives should form a minority government, possibly, but not necessarily, with an understanding with the Liberal Democrats on economic policy.

One reason why the Conservatives failed to win the election outright, or win sufficient seats to form a government with only a small minority in the House of Commons, was the performance of UKIP.  In a number of constituencies the combined Conservative/UKIP vote was greater than that of the party which won the seat.

The Conservatives entered a coalition with the fanatically europhile Liberal Democrats and since then the Tories have been restrained from taking an anti-EU membership (on current terms) stance.  Exactly the opposite of what UKIP would have hoped for.  However one cannot blame UKIP.

UKIP has many ex-Tories as members. Indeed it is believed that some people hold dual UKIP/Tory membership.

My experience indicates that there are many members of the Conservative Party who are euro-sceptics, ranging from those who wish to return to the free trade association days, to those who wish to see outright withdrawal.  What such members (and supporters) cannot stand is the obeisance paid by the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats on EU issues.

In my home town UKIP won a local election seat from the Conservatives.  The UKIP candidate made great play of the fact that he had been a Conservative councillor and that many UKIP members and supporters were ex-Tories.

Recently I was discussing politics with two Conservative councillors from a different part of Kent.  Both hold
strong anti-EU view and they were complimentary about UKIP.

As pressure mounts for a referendum on EU membership and Conservatives become more disenchanted with the Coalition Cameron must take a grip on the situation if the Tory party is not to suffer a major defeat at the next general election.

UPDATE: (21.06.2012)

I note a Conservative MP  in the House of Commons called yesterday for the Conservatives to ditch the Lib Dems and rule as a minority government.

See also:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/9344469/No-10s-many-troubles-can-be-traced-back-to-George-Osborne.html

Hotting up in Tunbridge Wells East

The Conservatives are out in force as they seek to hold the Kent County Council seat at next Thursday's by-election.  The Liberal Democrats are campaigning hard as are the supporters of the United Kingdom Independence Party.

Too close to call?

UKIP has thrown its big gun into the campaign with a visit from Nigel Farage MEP.

Second UKIP election leaflet

The second UKIP election leaflet was delivered to our home today.  Contains some guff on Europe and immigration (not that Tunbridge Wells Borough Council has any power over such matters) and nothing on  policies the candidate would promote for the borough or for the ward.

Not impressed.

Uncles strikes another bum note

The latest outpouring from the English Passport Blog (See:  http://englishpassport.org/2012/04/03/english-democrats-match-ukip-in-the-2012-english-mayoral-elections-in-london-liverpool-salford/  ) informs us that UKIP does not have a candidate for the London Mayoral election.

London MayorEnglish Democrats – None (English Democrats are running a London Wide Assembly Candidate Party List)
UKIP – None (UKIP are running a London Wide Assembly Candidate Party List)

However the London Elects website informs us as follows.

Candidate and party descriptions are given as on the nomination forms submitted by candidates. This is how they will appear on the ballot papers (along with party emblems). For clarification, ‘Fresh Choice for London’ is the description chosen by the UK Independence Party in this election.

Now, which do you believe?  No brainer.

Atwood for the chop?

In May 2011 the Conservatives had a shock in Rusthall.  They lost to UKIP.  The result was:

UKIP: 634, Conservative: 560, Liberal Democrat: 540.

The Liberal Democrats published the best election address but did not campaign, had they done so the Conservative candidate (the retiring councillor) might well have come last.  The Conservatives ran a very poor campaign.  UKIP fought a very hard campaign.

Most galling for the Conservatives was that the success of UKIP placed at risk the seat of the other councillor for Rusthall, Bob Atwood the Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council.

UKIP will be up for the battle to win another seat in Rusthall in 2012.  The Conservatives may be hoping that the Liberal Democrats do not contest the seat as the latter's votes are more likely to go to the Conservatives than the anti- EU UKIP.  Then again, maybe not, as in my experience many Liberal Democrat voters are registering a protest vote and have little understanding of the policies of the party.
Thus the Conservatives may hope the Liberal Democrats and/or Labour stand and split the anti- Conservative vote with UKIP.

The key issue in the election will be the decision of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council to raise council tax against the wishes of the Coalition government.

One of my regular readers has commented on this as follows:

The budget could have been balanced without increasing Council Tax but by taking tough decisions that are needed in times of economic stress and by following the path trodden by the overwhelming number of Councils in not increasing Taxes. Not bottling out and becoming a pariah among Conservative Councils that have taken tough action in order not to increase Council Tax.

The Communities Secretary has commented on the fifteen Conservative controlled councils which either have or are proposing to increase council tax.

With two weeks to go, we now know that the majority of councils, over 300 in fact, want to freeze bills for their residents in tough times. Not everyone has set out their budget plans yet so I expect to see those taking up the Government’s freeze deal to climb further.

A minority of out of touch authorities that seem unwilling to accept our offer should face up to the fact that it is unnecessary and it will hit hardworking households in the pocket. Residents will spot that many neighbouring councils are able to offer to freeze.

In Rusthall, UKIP must be pinching itself. The Conservative Group has made a rod for its own back and the blame for the rise in council tax will be placed at the door of the Leader of the Council. 

My personal opinion is that I hope councillor Atwood holds his seat.  He has managed to calm down the febrile rhetoric concerning the civic complex, been party to putting pressure on Morrison to re-open a supermarket and has tried to bring the issue of the re-development of the former cinema site to a conclusion. 

A new force on the political scene?

The right in English politics is re-ordering, again.

The English Defence League, a protest movement, is linking up with the British Freedom Party.  The latter has a number of ex-BNP members.  There could be an EDL or BFP candidate standing in your area soon.

See: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/english-defence-league-prepares-to-storm-local-elections-6267740.html

This development will come as a blow to the English Democrats who have also been recruiting ex-BNP members and as a consequence have lost a number of moderate key activists.  Outflanked on the right, the ED is coming under pressure from UKIP. UKIP is likely to embrace the policy which is the raison d'etre of the ED: the creation of an English parliament.

The squeeze is on for the ED.  UKIP and the EDL have high profiles, whereas the ED only appears as an occasional blip on the press radar.

Meanwhile, the BNP continues to function, just.  Heavily in debt, leaking members and ridden with internal strife, it is hanging on. 

The parties will continue to fight amongst themselves, busying themselves with the usual character assassinations, arguing over civic and ethnic nationalism, English 'culture' and immigration.  Meanwhile, in the real world of eurozone crisis, unemployment and poverty, people worry about their future oblivious to the issues which animate the right.

Yes, immigration is a concern to many, but it is not perceived by the majority of the population to be a matter to be questioned primarily on cultural or ethnic grounds.  We need to be vigilant and counter the vileness of people who peddle cultural or ethnic nationalism.

UKIP, the West Lothian Question and English Democrats

I assume my avid reader understands the phrase The West Lothian Question. For a description please follow the link below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Lothian_question

UKIP is a Unionist party.  In recent months, driven partly by the SNP working towards a referendum on an independent Scotland (and the recent statement by PC that it is seeking an independent Wales), and by the acknowledgement that there is a need to resolve the West Lothian Question, UKIP has developed a draft policy on the constitutional issues.

Basically the Union would be maintained as a federal structure with devolution to the four nations.  The policy is at an advanced discussion stage within the party.

The draft policy may be read by following the links below:

http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/2455-a-union-for-the-future

http://www.ukip.org/media/pdf/UnionForFuturedl.pdf


Should UKIP adopt the policy, it will make the English Democrats superfluous.  The ED is a party of civic nationalists and is anti-EU and pro an English parliament.  However, in recent months there has been a flow of ex- BNP members to the ED (some with high profiles in the BNP).  This has led some ED members to leave and join UKIP as they believe the influx of ex BNP menbers will change the character and policies of the ED.

The rise of UKIP?

Whilst is is foolhardy to develop a prognosis on the back of a few local government election results, nevertheless it is interesting to note the improved electoral performance of UKIP in Kent.

UKIP won a district council seat in Tunbridge Wells from the Conservatives at the May elections and came second with 33.7% of the votes in a Gravesham election in October.  This week the party gained almost 18% of the vote in a town council by-election in Southborough.  In Southborough the Conservatives gained the seat from Labour with a slightly increased percentage of the vote. The Liberal Democrats cames last, behind an Independent, with a derisory 4%.

The important point is that the results have given UKIP momentum and confidence.

Each result can be explained away by the other political parties, but what is motivating people to vote UKIP?

One factor is that the Liberal Democrats are now in government and therefore not likely to be the beneficiary of 'protest' votes.  The Labour Party has not recovered from its period in office.  The recent publicity concerning the travails of the eurozone and the referendum vote in the House of Commons has  informed the electorate that the only anti-EU party is UKIP.

The problems faced by the three major political parties is enabling UKIP to improve its electoral performance at local government level. This should assist UKIP to develop its membership and organisational base.

There is a perception that UKIP is the refuge for 'traditional' Conservatives who cannot stomach Cameronism.  This finds expression in articles such as this:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100115144/as-the-landscape-starts-to-shift-ukip-can-create-political-havoc/

However, the following link is to an article which propounds the view that UKIP is supported also by ex Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, by people the author describes as the 'reticent majority'.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100115417/ukip-the-party-of-englands-reticent-majority/

Civic v racist nationalism

Over the years the world has changed, political parties have changed, my opinions have changed.  Not surprising therefore that I have changed my political allegiance over the years.  What worries me is the phenomenon of  'party right or wrong' loyalists, or bigots for want of another word.  Churchill phrased it more elegantly: Some men change their party for the sake of their principles. Others change their principles for the sake of their party.

Come with me into the world of civic and racist nationalism.

Civic nationalism takes different forms. It includes the repatriation of powers from the European Union to the United Kingdom, the preservation of the United Kingdom as a constitutional entity, the creation of independent states for the four countries of the United Kingdom and the creation of a federal UK with symetric devolution. 

These various forms have one thing in common: the definition of nationalism is based on the constitutional arrangements for defined geographical areas and all the people living in those areas.

There is a far more insidious form of nationalism, often referred to as cultural or ethic nationalism, which putting it bluntly is racist nationalism. One of the leading purveyors of racist nationalism is the BNP.  The BNP is debt-laden, on the verge of bankruptcy and consumed by factions.  The party has lost many members: some are looking for new political homes.

Some ex-BNP members have lighted on the English Democrats as their political abode.  This involves them recanting two previously held positions namely: British and racist nationalism and in their stead embracing English and civic nationalism.  A number of English Democrats have viewed  the Damascean conversions with grave suspicion, indeed disbelief, their worries being compounded by the willingness of the ED to welcome these converts.

There have been resignations from the English Democrats, some have joined UKIP which is currently considering a policy change which will commit it to the creation of an English parliament within a federal UK structure, others may join minor English civic nationalist parties.

The next few months will be critical for UKIP and the ED.  Should UKIP confirm its new policy stance then it might expect an influx of English civic nationalists.  For the ED the stakes are much higher.  A loss of civic nationalists and a gain of ex-BNP members could lead to a shift in emphasis within the party towards a racist nationalist stance, no matter how it is dressed up as cultural or ethic nationalism.  The ED has embarked on a strategy which could see it consigned to the far fringes of political life, rather than, as it hopes, strengthening its political appeal.

See:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/sep/25/english-democrats-electorally-credible-bnp?fb=optOut