Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Some interesting contests

The list of candidates for the local elections in Tunbridge Wells has been published.  It is not the final list, candidates may withdraw, but it is unlikely that any will so do.  16 wards are being contested, and in 2 of the wards there are two seats up for grabs.

The Conservatives and Labour Party are fighting all 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 13, UKIP 12, Independents 2 and the Green Party 1.

My initial observations.

Benenden & Cranbrook.

A Con/Lab contest which I expect Con to hold.  Surprised there is no Lib Dem as the party holds one seat.  In the past there have been Independent councillors.

Brenchley and Horsmonden.

A Con/Lab contest.  Con should hold.

Broadwater.

Two seats to be contested, one by the sitting Con, the other a vacancy arising from the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  Con/Labour/Lib Dem each has 2 candidates and there is 1 UKIP candidate. Hard to call, possibly 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem to win.

Capel:

Con/Lib Dem/Labour candidates.  This is the seat of councillor Ransley.  Sadly, I think it will be a Con hold.

Culverden.

Con/Lib Dem/Labour/UKIP/Green candidates.  This is a very safe Con seat.

Goudhurst & Lamberhurst.

Con/Lab/Independent.  The sitting Con should have no problem holding the seat.

Hawkhurst & Sandhurst.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  Con hold.

Pantiles & St Marks.

Con/Lab/UKIP. Expect a Con hold.

Park.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  Con hold.

Pembury.

Two seats being contested, one the sitting Con councillor, the other resulting from the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  The former Lib Dem councillor won a by-election brought about by the resignation of a Con councillor, who is standing at this election as an Independent. Con lost the by-election as a consequence of defections to UKIP.

Candidates: Con 2/Lab2/ Lib Dems 1/ Ind/1 UKIP 1.

Very hard to call.  Much will depend on how people voting Lib Dem/Ind/UKIP use their second vote.   My inclination is towards 2 seats for Con.

Rusthall.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP

Last year this seat was a UKIP gain from Con, with Lib Dem not far behind.  Expect a far better campaign from Con this year.  The Con is the Leader of the Council. I expect a Con hold, just.

Sherwood.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  No English Democrat standing.  Anticipate a Con hold.

Southborough & High Brooms.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  Con lost this seat to Lab last May.  In a by-election to Southborough Town Council Con won a seat from Lab.  I expect a Lab gain from Con.

Speldhurst & Bidborough.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A very safe Con seat.

St James.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A Lib Dem stronghold.  Should be a Lib Dem hold.

St Johns.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  Will be a fierce contest. Last year a Con gain from Lib Dem. Con defending the seat.  Could be close.  I anticipate a Con hold.

After the elections I will add a post analysing how good, or bad, my predictions are.






2 comments:

  1. a easy 12 seats for UKIP to win

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    Replies
    1. 1st April has gone.

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