Friday, 4 May 2012

Inquest on my election predictions for Tunbridge Wells

Inquest on my predictions.

Some interesting contests

The list of candidates for the local elections in Tunbridge Wells has been published.  It is not the final list, candidates may withdraw, but it is unlikely that any will so do.  16 wards are being contested, and in 2 of the wards there are two seats up for grabs.

The Conservatives and Labour Party are fighting all 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 13, UKIP 12, Independents 2 and the Green Party 1.

My initial observations.

Benenden & Cranbrook.

A Con/Lab contest which I expect Con to hold.  Surprised there is no Lib Dem as the party holds one seat.  In the past there have been Independent councillors.  CON hold

Brenchley and Horsmonden.

A Con/Lab contest.  Con should hold. CON hold


Two seats to be contested, one by the sitting Con, the other a vacancy arising from the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  Con/Labour/Lib Dem each has 2 candidates and there is 1 UKIP candidate. Hard to call, possibly 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem to win. CON hold.  CON win from LIB DEM


Con/Lib Dem/Labour candidates.  This is the seat of councillor Ransley.  Sadly, I think it will be a Con hold.   LIB DEM win from CON


Con/Lib Dem/Labour/UKIP/Green candidates.  This is a very safe Con seat.  CON hold

Goudhurst & Lamberhurst.

Con/Lab/Independent.  The sitting Con should have no problem holding the seat. CON hold

Hawkhurst & Sandhurst.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  CON hold.  

Pantiles & St Marks.

Con/Lab/UKIP. Expect a Con hold. CON hold


Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  CON hold 


Two seats being contested, one the sitting Con councillor, the other resulting from the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  The former Lib Dem councillor won a by-election brought about by the resignation of a Con councillor, who is standing at this election as an Independent. Con lost the by-election as a consequence of defections to UKIP.

Candidates: Con 2/Lab2/ Lib Dems 1/ Ind/1 UKIP 1.

Very hard to call.  Much will depend on how people voting Lib Dem/Ind/UKIP use their second vote.   My inclination is towards 2 seats for Con.  IND win from CON and CON win from LIB DEM.


Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP

Last year this seat was a UKIP gain from Con, with Lib Dem not far behind.  Expect a far better campaign from Con this year.  The Con is the Leader of the Council. I expect a Con hold, just.
UKIP win from CON


Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  No English Democrat standing.  Anticipate a Con hold.  CON hold. However  a surge in the UKIP vote (30%) beating Labour (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)

Southborough & High Brooms.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  Con lost this seat to Lab last May.  In a by-election to Southborough Town Council Con won a seat from Lab.  I expect a Lab gain from Con. LAB win from CON

Speldhurst & Bidborough.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A very safe Con seat.  CON hold

St James.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A Lib Dem stronghold.  Should be a Lib Dem hold.  LIB DEM hold

St Johns.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  Will be a fierce contest. Last year a Con gain from Lib Dem. Con defending the seat.  Could be close.  I anticipate a Con hold.  CON hold

After the elections I will add a post analysing how good, or bad, my predictions are.

No comments:

Post a Comment