Greece heads for new election

In June the Greek people will go to the polls again.  The political parties have failed to agree to form a coalition which would command a majority in the Greek parliament.  Will the Left make further gains on  a  platform of refusing to implement austerity measures?  Highly likely.

The alarm bells will be ringing in the rest of the eurozone, the  EC and for that matter across world financial markets.  Will Berlin blink first.  The pressure is on Germany.  One of Hollande's aides has stated that Merkel is acting as though she was President of the EU, Monti in Italy is loosing the shackles he has to Merkel, Spain has declared it will not seek to meet the original austerity targets.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9267247/Greece-heads-for-fresh-elections-after-coalition-talks-fail.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18076757

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017148/appetiser-cost-of-greek-exit-is-e155bn-for-germany-france-trillions-for-meat-course/
Excellent article.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/world-braces-itself-for-greek-euro-exit-7746774.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/new-election-for-greece-as-government-talks-collapse-7754061.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-the-fate-of-the-euro-is-the-chronicle-of-a-death-foretold-7746758.html

http://www.nucleus.uk.net/home/item/stumbling-towards-the-brexit?category_id=1

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greece-to-hold-new-election-in-june-after-coalition-talks-collapse-a-833373.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100017174/this-is-how-the-euro-ends-not-with-a-whimper-but-a-bang/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9267824/Frances-Hollandes-plane-struck-by-lightning-en-route-to-Germany.html
Hollande/Merkel press conference

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18081075

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2012/05/john-baron-mp-a-prize-awaits-the-prime-minister-if-he-seizes-the-moment-over-the-eurozone-crisis.html

Muck o'nettles time?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9265685/Greek-politicians-urged-to-end-the-deadlock-and-form-a-government-as-financial-markets-tumble.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9263156/The-final-death-throes-of-the-euro.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/why-greece-needs-to-leave-the-euro-zone-a-832968.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9265647/Spanish-borrowing-costs-surge-on-bank-rescue-fears.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9264752/Dont-land-us-with-the-bill-for-Europes-folly.html
Indeed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9265930/Merkel-tells-Greece-to-back-cuts-or-face-euro-exit.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9266406/Greek-Leftists-rule-out-technocratic-government-as-leaders-meet-again.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/analysis-of-impact-of-elections-on-angela-merkel-s-european-policy-a-833151.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9265623/Brace-brace.-Dark-times-ahead-as-Greece-heads-for-the-exit.html

Greece: tragedy or farce or both

Will Greece stay in the euro, or leave, or be forced out?  Will a coalition government be formed?  Highly unlikely, but still a few twists and turns to be played out.  How will the financial markets react to the political stalemate in Greece?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9263389/Britain-to-share-costs-of-Greek-exit.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18048946
Greek political parties in last ditch talks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9263156/The-final-death-throes-of-the-euro.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9263935/Pivotal-Greek-party-leader-predicts-failure-of-coalition-talks.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9263811/Eurozone-finance-ministers-to-meet-amid-Greek-and-Spanish-crises.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-response-to-cdu-defeat-in-the-north-rhine-westphalia-election-a-833003.html
Merkel under pressure.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/why-greece-needs-to-leave-the-euro-zone-a-832968.html
Time to admit defeat - Spiegel.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18055629
Last ditch coalition talks in Greece,

Next Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council

The next Leader of the Council will be chosen by the Conservative Group of councillors behind closed doors.  This, in a nutshell,  is why I support the directly elected mayor method.

The Leader has the power to choose his/her cabinet.  In Tunbridge Wells there is a vacancy arising from the departure from the council of Brian Ransley, courtesy of the sensible electorate in Capel.  Will the new Leader be tempted to make changes in cabinet personnel?  The former Leader had a partial clear out on his appointment.

The press reports that the acting leader, councillor David Jukes, is standing for Leader.  Will he be opposed? In the event of an election, I imagine current cabinet members will be seeking reassurance from the candidates that their cabinet post is safe and aspiring cabinet members will be trying to work out whom to vote for to secure a cabinet position.

The local press has been having fun identifying potential candidates.  What has not happened is to invite members of the Conservative Association to express an opinion, never mind the wider electorate.

I know whom I would support, but to name the person would probably be the kiss of death for their chances of success.

See:  http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/question-power/story-16053415-detail/story.html

Much to ponder

Looks as though we are heading for a clash between the forces of democracy in Greece and France and Berlin.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9261815/Greeces-Syriza-remains-defiant-as-last-ditch-effort-to-form-coalition-government-looks-set-to-fail.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9260338/Angela-Merkel-wont-let-go-of-the-euro-purse-strings.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9262068/Greece-will-run-out-of-money-soon-warns-deputy-prime-minister.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9261834/ECBs-Patrick-Honohan-says-Greek-euro-exit-would-not-be-fatal.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100157373/an-eu-referendum-is-coming-will-david-cameron-get-there-first-and-win-the-credit/

UPDATE:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9262894/Greece-Leftist-Alexis-Tsipras-claims-deal-has-been-brokered-without-his-party.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9263166/Greece-faces-moment-of-truth-as-talks-stall.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9262929/Coalition-talks-in-Greece-fail-to-produce-agreement.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18048942
Poor showing for Merkel's party in state elections.

Confused Courier

According to The Courier newspaper there is going to be a by election on 14th  June in the Kent County Council division, Tunbridge Wells Rural East.

'Rural' is hardly descriptive of Sherwood.  The by-election is in Tunbridge Wells East.  The county councillor for Tunbridge Wells Rural is Alex King MBE.

2009 result:

Turnout %	Majority %
37.30	840

Candidates	Party	Votes	Swing
LYNES, Kevin Graham	The Conservative Party Candidate	2372	9.67%
NEVE, David John	Liberal Democrat	1532	-4.81%
GAYLER, Eileen Alice	U.K. Independence Party	585	12.15%
RICH, Tim	The Labour Party Candidate	324	-10.92%

Euroland battleground

The battleground has four fronts:

1. Securing ratification of the fiscal pact.

2. The balance between austerity and growth

3. The ongoing crisis in Greece

4. Spanish bank capitalisation

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9258931/Brussels-to-audit-Spanish-banks.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9258633/Spanish-banks-need-100bn-amid-international-aid-warning.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18031324


http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/banks-prove-to-be-a-dangerous-handicap-for-spain-a-832656.html

Latest:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9260650/Spanish-banks-given-15-days-to-plan-how-to-raise-30bn-or-face-nationalisation.html

Commentary on the Bundesbank's statement that it may be prepared to countenance higher inflation in Germany:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/fear-of-inflation-in-germany-after-bundesbank-comments-a-832648.html

UPDATE:   Greek coalition talks fail:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9260830/Greek-leaders-fail-to-form-coalition-as-poll-shows-radical-leftist-would-win-new-election.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9261386/Greece-fails-to-form-coalition-government-for-third-time.html

Also, an item on France:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100017094/french-defict-to-shatter-faith-in-the-new-fiscal-compact/

The rise of UKIP in Tunbridge Wells

UKIP is celebrating its success in winning a seat in Rusthall, defeating the Conservative Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council. The party now holds two seats on the council, both in Rusthall. Elsewhere in the borough, UKIP had a solid second place in Sherwood (30%) and managed second place (just) with 15% of the vote in Culverden.

UKIP won its first seat in Rusthall in 2011 following a strong campaign and a very poor Conservative campaign.  The Conservatives put a huge effort into retaining the seat in 2012, contrary to the opinion expressed in the local newspaper that they were complacent and took the electorate for granted.  The MP for Tunbridge Wells was seen pressing the flesh in Rusthall.

The recent success of UKIP on Tunbridge Wells is a consequence of a number of factors:

• Growing anti-EU sentiment.
• Traditional Tory voters perceive UKIP as more in keeping with their views that the 'modernised' Conservative Party.
• The party the 'protest vote' moves to.  The Liberal Democrats no longer attract protest votes as the party is part of the coalition.
• The Labour Party is insignificant in Tunbridge Wells.
• The poor performance of the coalition government in the weeks leading up to the local elections.

In Rusthall the election literature of the UKIP candidate made no reference to any issue local to the ward.  Indeed, apart from a swipe at the decision to  raise Council Tax, the literature concentrated on the EU and immigration and made no reference to borough issues.

So, whatever motivated the Rusthall electorate it was not the merits of UKIP's policies for Rusthall and Tunbridge Wells.

The next challenge for the Conservatives is the election of a new Leader of the Council.  A number of potential candidates have been mentioned in the local press, but we do not know who has decided to throw a hat into the ring.

The election caravan now moves on to the vacant Kent County Council seat in Tunbridge Wells East Division. A few weeks ago I would have had this down as a routine Conservative hold. Now I am not so sure.  UKIP will fight hard following the good result in Sherwood and people who voted Independent in Pembury might be tempted to vote UKIP.  Although the Liberal Democrats did well in their stronghold, St James (62%), the party secured only 9% in Sherwood and 10% in Pembury.

The seat became vacant on the death of Kevin Lynes, who built up a strong and deserved personal vote.

2009 result:

Turnout %	Majority %
37.30	840

Candidates	Party	Votes	Swing
LYNES, Kevin Graham	The Conservative Party Candidate	2372	9.67%
NEVE, David John	Liberal Democrat	1532	-4.81%
GAYLER, Eileen Alice	U.K. Independence Party	585	12.15%
RICH, Tim	The Labour Party Candidate	324	-10.92%

Euroland update.

When it rains it pours and pours and pours.  The Chinese have stopped buying European government debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9258317/Chinese-sovereign-wealth-fund-stops-buying-European-government-debt.html

Meanwhile poor Angela's fiscal pact is coming apart at the seams.  Not only does the new French president threaten to block the treaty, but she has difficulties at home.  The Dutch coalition government has not signed and her ally in Italy, Mr Monti  gives the impression of joining the Hollande camp.  On top of all this the Irish referendum on the treaty will be held on 31 May and a 'yes' vote is far from certain.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9257302/Its-too-late-for-Germany-to-save-the-euro.html

To add insult to injury, the Bundesbank has signalled that it may be prepared for inflation to creep upwards, a major policy shift.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9257718/Francois-Hollande-to-fly-to-Berlin-to-meet-Angela-Merkel-within-hours-of-inauguration.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/9258483/Francois-Hollande-threatens-to-block-eurozones-new-financial-treaty.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9255534/Eurozone-crisis-Angela-Merkel-forced-to-postpone-fiskalpakt-ratification.html

Breaking news:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9258442/First-hope-of-Greek-coalition-government-as-socialist-parties-say-they-could-work-together.html
But will the Greek people wear it?

It's all happening in Greece

Unmitigated bad news from Greece.  Youth unemployment at over 53%,  manufacturing down 8%. part of he next tranche of bailout funds blocked and a third attempt to form a government with the likelihood it will fail and lead to another general election on 17 June.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9255939/Greece-in-chaos-as-Alexis-Tsiprass-coalition-talks-fail.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9256860/Greek-socialists-given-third-chance-at-forming-government.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9255637/Germany-warns-Greece-it-will-halt-aid-unless-it-commits-to-bailout-agreements.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-politicians-warn-greece-over-austerity-a-832232.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017061/europes-nuclear-brinkmanship-with-greece-is-a-lethal-game/

Meanwhile Spain struggles to contain a banking crisis.

Some interesting articles which may be indicators of what will come next in euroland.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9256859/Angela-Merkel-warns-there-is-no-magic-bullet-to-beat-debt-crisis.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/eu-considers-proposals-to-boost-growth-a-832379.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/bundesbank-signals-germany-would-accept-higher-inflation-a-832457.html
Bundesbank is the key player in any change.

YUK awards moves to next stage

What is it that motivates people to crave recognition through this sort of rubbish?

http://www2.tunbridgewells.gov.uk/Default.aspx?page=4817

Well, well

An interesting post on the English Passport blog.

http://englishpassport.org/2012/05/09/bnp-write-about-the-english-democrats-on-the-bnp-web-site/

"a truly disastrous set of election results."



Then, compare and contrast this:

http://robintilbrook.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/elections-may-2012.html

Greece and Spain in the news

The threat has been made to Greece: scrap austerity and there will be no future bailout payments from the IMF and the European bailout provision.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-politicians-warn-greece-over-austerity-a-832232.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9255710/Keep-cutting-or-EU-aid-stops-Greeks-told.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9255637/Germany-warns-Greece-it-will-halt-aid-unless-it-commits-to-bailout-agreements.html

The EC is stating that the fiscal pact is not open to re-negotiation. A shot across the bows of the new French president.  Whatever happened to the concept of a democratic mandate?

Spain's borrowing cost have touched 6% as the markets fret at the instability of Spanish banks caused by the crash in property values in that country.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9252878/European-markets-slump-on-Greek-and-French-fears.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9253207/Crisis-escalates-as-insurrection-breaks-German-control-of-Europe.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9253123/Germany-vulnerable-to-southern-European-crisis.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9253369/Greece-drifts-closer-to-euro-exit.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9253398/Greek-threat-to-the-euro-scares-worlds-stock-markets.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/9254729/The-eurozone-bail-out-had-three-aims.-It-has-failed-on-all-of-them.html

UPDATE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9255621/Spain-nationalises-Bankia-as-euro-crisis-escalates.html

Finally:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/timworstall/100017007/why-the-euro-is-doomed-to-fall-apart-it-was-an-incredibly-stupid-idea-in-the-first-place/

Lewes-Uckfield railway

More on the Uckfield-Lewes re-opening campaign.

http://www.wealdenline.co.uk/the-news/192-labour-lords-condemn-rail-wrecking-road-by-greenest-government-ever.html

BBC take on Greece

For so long a cheerleader for all things EU, the realisation has dawned on the BBC that all is not well in euroland. Maybe we shall have more balanced reporting from now on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17986065

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17993894

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17999206

Three major losses for the Conservatives

In little over a month the Conservatives in Kent have lost, through death, two major local politicians.  Mark Worrall was a dynamic leader of Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council.  Kevin Lynes was a member of Kent County Council's cabinet.

The third loss was Roy Bullock, deposed as leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and then de-selected as a candidate.

Operation self-deceit: the birth of the euro

Fascinating three part article in Spiegel.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-struggles-can-be-traced-to-origins-of-common-currency-a-831842.html

Greece takes centre stage.

Spain's banks require massive capitalisation as property prices fall.  Ireland has a referendum soon on the fiscal pact.  Holland's coalition us broken.  The Franco-German axis has been damaged (but not fatally) by the election of Hollande as France's president.  Italy and Portugal have fallen off the radar in recent weeks, but both have problems that will resurface.

And yet, it is Greece that is back in the headlines.  The Greek electorate had the temerity to throw out the parties of austerity and instead elected a curate's egg of parties of the political Left and Right.  there is serious doubt as to likelihood of a coalition being formed which commands a parliamentary majority.  Should this be the case, then another general election has to be held.   However would a second general election resolve the impasse?

It is looking more and more likely that  the best way forward for Greece is to have an orderly withdrawal from the euro.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/philipaldrick/100016977/greece-is-at-the-epicentre-of-a-new-euro-crisis-and-its-chaos-will-spread/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/little-chance-of-greek-parties-being-able-to-form-government-a-831909.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9250801/French-and-Greek-political-earthquakes-point-to-rise-of-the-anti-austerity-movement.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9250798/Angela-Merkel-facing-political-fight-of-her-life-over-France-and-Greece-austerity-rejection.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/chancellor-merkel-wants-to-teach-president-hollande-merits-of-austerity-a-831845.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100156726/le-grand-mensonge-why-francois-hollandes-end-to-austerity-message-is-just-smoke-and-mirrors/

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12160.htm
IMF press release.

UPDATES:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9252878/European-markets-slump-on-Greek-and-French-fears.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9252260/Italy-facing-uphill-battle-to-ratify-EUs-fiscal-compact.html

A new Europe?

Have the elections in France and Greece broken the consensus over the direction of the EU and the eurozone in particular?  Or is it smoke and mirrors?  Germany is worried by the changed political landscape, but what did it expect after its insistence on imposing austerity; the thanks of grateful electorates?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9249466/Europe-has-reached-a-watershed-moment-and-leaders-need-to-refocus.html
See my previous post.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9249711/Markets-braced-for-shift-away-from-austerity-as-Francois-Hollande-wins-French-election.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17979913

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9249598/Francois-Hollande-has-ten-weeks-to-avert-a-French-bond-crisis.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9249744/France-elections-2012-Francois-Hollande-victory-sets-EU-on-course-for-turmoil.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9249754/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-to-be-greeted-by-market-turmoil.html


As was to be expected, the German response to events in Greece and France is depressing.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/three-key-elections-pose-dangers-for-merkel-a-831356.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-voters-face-dilemma-in-sunday-s-election-a-831432.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/french-voters-elect-fran-ois-hollande-as-next-president-a-831654.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greeks-clearly-reject-austerity-in-sunday-elections-a-831678.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-s-party-suffers-setback-in-german-state-election-a-831656.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/french-greek-and-schleswig-holstein-elections-show-risks-ahead-for-merkel-a-831671.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/as-president-hollande-will-have-no-choice-but-to-disappoint-french-a-831667.html
See also:  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830090,00.html  Interesting meetings ahead!


UPDATE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9250062/Stock-markets-fall-as-Greek-and-French-elections-renew-fears-that-Europe-cannot-solve-debt-crisis.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9250122/Francois-Hollande-defies-critics-to-fulfil-his-destiny-at-last.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/analysis-of-election-victory-of-french-president-fran-ois-hollande-a-831762.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9250187/France-election-Germany-rules-out-reworking-EUs-fiskalpakt.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370
Greece must stick to bailout terms day EU and Germany.  Now there's a surprise.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-press-review-of-hollande-election-in-france-a-831773.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/chancellor-merkel-wants-to-teach-president-hollande-merits-of-austerity-a-831845.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-needs-to-reform-its-banking-sector-a-831712.html
Too little, too late?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9250840/German-Chancellor-Angela-Merkel-faces-a-fight-for-the-eurozones-future.html
"But providing a mixture of austerity and growth that would keep the eurozone intact and the markets happy is comparable to seeing pigs take to the sky."


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9250986/New-eurozone-crisis-looms-as-Spain-prepares-bail-out.html
This has been threatening for months.

A European tipping point?

Elections in France, Greece and Germany have gone badly for the ruling parties.  Prior to the elections the EC and ECB were hinting at the possibility of a growth pact to go alongside the austerity pact.  But is it too little too late?  The voters in Greece and France have granted power to anti austerity pact politicians.  Certainly in Greece the electorate will expect action from the parties that have been elected.

How will the financial markets respond?  The one thing the markets dislike above all others is political uncertainty.  Now we have it in spades.

The EC is particular will be worried by the political change and the potential for major policy change.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9249627/France-Greece-and-Germany-election-results-send-austerity-shockwaves-through-Europe.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9249521/France-election-2012-Nicolas-Sarkozy-booted-out-of-office-having-exhausted-France.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9249578/Greece-vote-delivers-austerity-verdict.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9249492/Angela-Merkel-suffers-setback-after-Schleswig-Holstein-election.html

Hollande or Sarkozy? Not forgetting Greece

We shall know soon the outcome of the French presidential election, but a few articles to give 'colour' to the issues.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9249073/Turnout-rises-as-Nicolas-Sarkozy-predicts-victory-from-jaws-of-defeat.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9248356/Just-how-dangerous-is-the-socialist-hand-grenade-Francois-Hollande.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9246002/French-Socialists-joy-of-election-victory-will-be-shortlived.html

Whilst in Greece:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9248967/Greece-voting-opens-with-uncertainty-ahead.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9237825/The-future-of-Greece-diary-of-an-election.html

Meanwhile....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9248348/EUs-Olli-Rehn-signals-end-of-Merkozy-austerity-drive.html

Keeping council website updated, or not...

Rusthall Parish Council website was paid for with public money.  Is it too much to ask that the site is updated with the minutes of Parish Council meetings?  No posts since the February minutes.

Tory blues

Robert Atwood lost his seat on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council to UKIP.  In defeat he was quoted thus:


“I’m shocked but not surprised. I just feel sorry that the people of Rusthall now have two councillors they will come to regret having elected.”


There's magnanimity for you!  Nothing is gained by criticising the electorate.  Sounds more like sour grapes. 

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-17925381

I have not worked out why his defeat is a 'disaster' for Tunbridge Wells.  

However, there is a more important matter looming, the by-election for Kevin Lynes' Kent County Council division.  Looking at the results in the three wards which make up the division, it should be a Conservative hold.


Doubtless UKIP will be up for the contest but I cannot see them winning the seat, although they came second to the Conservatives in Sherwood with 30% of the vote.


The Liberal Democrats had a strong result in St James, a poor result in Sherwood and lost a seat in Pembury.  Labour is not in with a shout.  What will be interesting is how people who voted for the Independent in Pembury (who topped the poll in a two seat contest) use their vote at the forthcoming by-election.  Given the success of the Independent in Pembury, another Independent may chance his/her arm at the by-election.


The Conservatives will need to take care in their selection of a candidate.  Sherwood, St James and Pembury have little in common except, as Kevin Lynes understood well,  serious issues of deprivation in St James and Sherwood.  They need to find a candidate who understands community and deprivation issues and has a track record of community engagement.


Unfortunately the Local Government Committee does not inspire confidence.  After all it was this committee which re-selected the member for Capel.  


The by-election  will be held on 14th June.

Matters European

A miscellany of articles on issues in Europe.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9242279/Chancellor-George-Osborne-tells-EU-he-wont-sign-Britain-up-to-idiotic-Basel-III-plan.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9243959/Chancellor-George-Osborne-blocks-EUs-Basel-III-rules.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9244121/ECB-president-Mario-Draghi-calls-for-binding-growth-pact.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/french-election-could-determine-whether-german-leads-europ-group-a-831223.html
In Hollande's hands

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-press-review-on-french-presidential-elections-a-831336.html
Hollande's eurozone strategy will end in disaster.  See also:  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830594,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-union-launches-citizens-initiative-program-to-mixed-reviews-a-831402.html
Dear me!

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,830972,00.html
Millions left behind in German boom.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/three-key-elections-pose-dangers-for-merkel-a-831356.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-voters-face-dilemma-in-sunday-s-election-a-831432.html

Tunbridge Wells elections

In one sense the election results do not change much in Tunbridge Wells.  The Conservatives retain a big majority.  The Conservatives gained two seats from the Liberal Democrats, lost one seat to Labour, one to UKIP and one to the Independent.

The changes to the parties' representation are:

CON:   -2
LD:      -1
LAB:   +1
UKIP: +1
IND:   +1

My predictions were made on 4 April, before the budget, the furore over Jeremy Hunt, and the fuel 'crisis'.  In the circumstances the Conservatives did well  to hold St John's and Sherwood and gain a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Broadwater.

The loss by the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats in Capel surprised me.  Regular readers of this blog will know the recent history of former councillor Brian Ransley.  The local Conservative Association Executive Council de-selected him, but he was re-instated by the Local Government Committee and fully supported by the Leader of the Council.  The Executive Council has been vindicated by the sensible people of Capel.

The 'big story' is the defeat of the Leader of the Council by UKIP in the ward where I live, Rusthall.  Had it not been for the problems of the Coalition government he might have held his seat.  In 2011 the Conservatives lost a seat to UKIP by 74 votes, this time it was by 46 votes.

UKIP came a good second in Sherwood (30%) with Labour trailing on (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)

The immediate issue for the Conservative Group will be who to recommend as the new Leader of the Council.  Whoever is chosen then will have to appoint his/her cabinet.

Both Labour and UKIP will be pleased to have doubled their representation on the Council.  Each party will now be a 'Group' and by having 2 councillors each, will be able to use the Council's standing orders to good effect.  Two councillors sit as Independents but it is doubtful if they will form a Group, particularly as one is Mayor-elect.

Inquest on my election predictions for Tunbridge Wells

Inquest on my predictions.

Some interesting contests

The list of candidates for the local elections in Tunbridge Wells has been published.  It is not the final list, candidates may withdraw, but it is unlikely that any will so do.  16 wards are being contested, and in 2 of the wards there are two seats up for grabs.

The Conservatives and Labour Party are fighting all 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 13, UKIP 12, Independents 2 and the Green Party 1.

My initial observations.

Benenden & Cranbrook.

A Con/Lab contest which I expect Con to hold.  Surprised there is no Lib Dem as the party holds one seat.  In the past there have been Independent councillors.  CON hold

Brenchley and Horsmonden.

A Con/Lab contest.  Con should hold. CON hold

Broadwater.

Two seats to be contested, one by the sitting Con, the other a vacancy arising from the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  Con/Labour/Lib Dem each has 2 candidates and there is 1 UKIP candidate. Hard to call, possibly 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem to win. CON hold.  CON win from LIB DEM

Capel:

Con/Lib Dem/Labour candidates.  This is the seat of councillor Ransley.  Sadly, I think it will be a Con hold.   LIB DEM win from CON

Culverden.

Con/Lib Dem/Labour/UKIP/Green candidates.  This is a very safe Con seat.  CON hold

Goudhurst & Lamberhurst.

Con/Lab/Independent.  The sitting Con should have no problem holding the seat. CON hold

Hawkhurst & Sandhurst.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  CON hold.  

Pantiles & St Marks.

Con/Lab/UKIP. Expect a Con hold. CON hold

Park.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  CON hold 

Pembury.

Two seats being contested, one the sitting Con councillor, the other resulting from the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  The former Lib Dem councillor won a by-election brought about by the resignation of a Con councillor, who is standing at this election as an Independent. Con lost the by-election as a consequence of defections to UKIP.

Candidates: Con 2/Lab2/ Lib Dems 1/ Ind/1 UKIP 1.

Very hard to call.  Much will depend on how people voting Lib Dem/Ind/UKIP use their second vote.   My inclination is towards 2 seats for Con.  IND win from CON and CON win from LIB DEM.

Rusthall.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP

Last year this seat was a UKIP gain from Con, with Lib Dem not far behind.  Expect a far better campaign from Con this year.  The Con is the Leader of the Council. I expect a Con hold, just.

UKIP win from CON

Sherwood.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  No English Democrat standing.  Anticipate a Con hold.  CON hold. However  a surge in the UKIP vote (30%) beating Labour (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)


Southborough & High Brooms.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  Con lost this seat to Lab last May.  In a by-election to Southborough Town Council Con won a seat from Lab.  I expect a Lab gain from Con. LAB win from CON

Speldhurst & Bidborough.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A very safe Con seat.  CON hold

St James.

Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP.  A Lib Dem stronghold.  Should be a Lib Dem hold.  LIB DEM hold

St Johns.

Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP.  Will be a fierce contest. Last year a Con gain from Lib Dem. Con defending the seat.  Could be close.  I anticipate a Con hold.  CON hold

After the elections I will add a post analysing how good, or bad, my predictions are.

Eurozone storm clouds gather

A few articles for your consideration:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9238854/The-eurozone-should-sort-out-its-own-mess.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830663,00.html
Election threatens to become snapshot of Greek despair.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100016867/the-eurozone-crisis-is-back-with-a-bang/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/9241974/The-euro-crisis-just-got-a-whole-lot-worse.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100155299/europes-crisis-is-about-to-get-a-whole-lot-worse/

Rusthall election

The important task tomorrow is to vote.

Our household has been visited by  the Conservatives and UKIP.  No sign of Labour Party canvassers.  The Liberal Democrats did not bother to send me an election address, which is a pity as last year the party published the best election leaflet.

The best election leaflet, for content and layout was published by the Labour Party.  The two Conservative leaflets were a mixed bag.  The first concentrated on local issues, the second was pedestrian and why we were regaled with photographs of young and youngish Tories defeats me.

UKIP wins the wooden spoon.  The election material was abysmal.

On his record representing Rusthall, I believe the Conservative candidate deserves to win.  Doubtless national and eurozone issues will play a part in the electorates thinking, which is unfortunate.  This could benefit UKIP and Labour.  Too close to call the result, but UKIP won last year and have a good candidate.  Set against that, the Conservatives have upped their game following the disastrous campaign in 2011.

France and Germany

 Four interesting articles.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830594,00.html
Austerity backlash.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9239450/Europe-needs-creativity-not-billions-of-euros-says-German-Chancellor-Angela-Merkel.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9239606/Electoral-silence-on-Frances-slow-economic-decline.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830642,00.html
The man who always smiles.

In the event of Hollande winning the French presidential election the future direction of the eurozone will be interesting.

Not forgetting that the Greeks have a general election this weekend and the coalition government in the Netherlands has failed to approve the fiscal pact and a general election will be held in September.  We are entering a new and potentially even more destructive phase of the eurozone crisis