Reflections on Tunbridge Wells East Tory win

My prediction that the Conservatives would hold, by a small margin, the Kent County Council seat of Tunbridge Wells East proved correct.

The poll at the 2009 election was 37%, yesterday it was 27%

2009:

Conservative  49%,  Liberal Democrat  32%,  UKIP 12%,  Labour  7%
2372                         1532                              585              324
2012:

Conservative  32%,  Liberal Democrat  28%,  UKIP 28%,  Labour  9%,  Green  3%
1171                        1022                               1000             321               109

UKIP put a huge effort into winning the seat.  Nigel Farage, MEP made an appearance.  UKIP more than doubled its vote and should gain great satisfaction from this.

The Liberal Democrat vote held up well.  Labour was never going to do well in the seat.

The Conservatives doubtless are breathing a huge sigh of relief at holding the seat.  It was never going to be easy when set in the context of the national political scene, to which should be added that the previous Conservative councillor was very popular and had the support of people who normally would not vote Conservative.

Overall, the outcome is that the seat is now a three-way marginal, whereas it was previously a comfortable Conservative hold.

The next election is in 2013.  An Independent councillor for one of the three Tunbridge Wells Borough Council wards which make up the KCC division has been quoted in the local press as considering standing for the county council in 2013.  He won the borough council ward  seat from the Conservatives, having previously been a Conservative councillor.