In 1996 I stood as a candidate at the local elections and managed to win. In those days all the parties published and delivered election literature.
Fast forward to 2016. Only one party (Conservative) delivered election leaflets for the local elections and likewise for the PCC election. Poor show.
TYKE IN KENT'S THEOLOGICAL RAMBLINGS
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Thursday, 5 May 2016
Saturday, 30 April 2016
Awaiting election literature
The Conservatives have delivered an election address for the borough council elections in Tunbridge Wells. Nothing from Labour, UKIP, Lib Dems or Greens.
No literature from any of the candidates for the Kent Police and Crime Commissioner election.
A late flurry of activity?
No literature from any of the candidates for the Kent Police and Crime Commissioner election.
A late flurry of activity?
Friday, 8 April 2016
Tunbridge Wells Borough Council elections
The election season is upon us. Nominations have closed for the borough council elections on 5th May. Nothing of interest to get excited about. Possibility of close results in Capel, Rusthall, Pembury, St John's and Southborough.
http://www.tunbridgewells.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/119960/Borough-Statement-of-Persons-Nominated.pdf
http://www.tunbridgewells.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/119960/Borough-Statement-of-Persons-Nominated.pdf
Monday, 6 May 2013
Kent Tories wobble but not toppled.
The Conservative held on to control of Kent County Council....just.
UKIP came from nowhere to win 17 seats, Labour failed to regain all the seats lost in 2009 and the Liberal Democrats trod water. Had UKIP been able to mount contests in more Conservative seats, as distinct from fielding 'paper' candidates, we could have been looking at a council with no overall control.
As it is the Conservatives will form the cabinet. We await with interest signs that opposition councillors are capable of mounting effective scrutiny.
UKIP gained Tunbridge Wells East from the Conservatives. A good result, followed by a stab in the back.
http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Successful-Tunbridge-Wells-UKIP-candidate/story-18881621-detail/story.html#axzz2SENnnEGj
The UKIP challenge in Tunbridge Wells North came to nothing as the electorate followed the lead of Capel's electorate last year and refused to elect Brian Ransley.
The English Democrats had a hopeless campaign and dismal results. At least they brought comedy to the elections with a candidate living at a non existent address and two candidates who live in Swanley, stood under other names and gave as their home address a location outside the county.
The English Democrats performance in Kent was matched in Doncaster where they lost the Mayoral election having been successful in 2009. It wasn't even close. Hower, in typical English Democrat fashion, a gloss was put on the heavy defeat.
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Monday, 22 April 2013
KCC election update
So far, two election addresses delivered to chez Hopkinson. The Labour candidate's is as good as the one delivered for last year's borough council election. Sharp, easy to read: looks professional.
The Conservative candidates election address repeats the problems of last year's election address: verbose, badly laid out and self-congratulatory. No mention of the critical reports on children in care and primary schools.
Tunbridge Wells East is even more difficult to call. The Independent candidate's chance of winning has been boosted by his being proposed by the successful Independent candidate at last year's borough elections. Now looks like a four-way marginal.
The Conservative candidates election address repeats the problems of last year's election address: verbose, badly laid out and self-congratulatory. No mention of the critical reports on children in care and primary schools.
Tunbridge Wells East is even more difficult to call. The Independent candidate's chance of winning has been boosted by his being proposed by the successful Independent candidate at last year's borough elections. Now looks like a four-way marginal.
Tuesday, 9 April 2013
Cload and dagger
The county council elections are upon us. Expect an avalanche of election literature in Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives seek to repulse UKIP's charge and forays by the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
The most intriguing contest is in Tunbridge Wells East. The Conservatives held the seat in a by-election last year, just - the seat is a three-way marginal.
The recent surge by UKIP in the opinion polls must encourage the party to believe it can win the seat. The Liberal Democrats also hope to win as the electoral division includes their strongest ward.
The decision of Terry Cload to stand as an Independent adds to the uncertainty in predicting the result. Mr Cload is a former Conservative councillor on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and a former Vice-Chairman of the local Conservative Association.
In 2012 an Independent achieved a resounding victory in Pembury at the Borough Council elections. He is also a former Conservative councillor.
Tunbridge Wells North should be interesting. The long-serving Conservative member was de-selected. One ward in the division is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal. Labour has won two seats on the Borough Council in one of the other wards making up the division. The 'surprise' candidate is the former Conservative borough councillor, Brian Ransley, who is standing for UKIP. Mr Ransley has had a few mentions on this blog.
Finally, the contest in Tunbridge Wells West could produce a surprise. Normally a very safe Conservative seat, UKIP has won two seats from the Conservatives on the Borough Council in Rusthall ward. Last year UKIP gained a seat by ousting the Leader of the Borough Council.
The most intriguing contest is in Tunbridge Wells East. The Conservatives held the seat in a by-election last year, just - the seat is a three-way marginal.
The recent surge by UKIP in the opinion polls must encourage the party to believe it can win the seat. The Liberal Democrats also hope to win as the electoral division includes their strongest ward.
The decision of Terry Cload to stand as an Independent adds to the uncertainty in predicting the result. Mr Cload is a former Conservative councillor on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and a former Vice-Chairman of the local Conservative Association.
In 2012 an Independent achieved a resounding victory in Pembury at the Borough Council elections. He is also a former Conservative councillor.
Tunbridge Wells North should be interesting. The long-serving Conservative member was de-selected. One ward in the division is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal. Labour has won two seats on the Borough Council in one of the other wards making up the division. The 'surprise' candidate is the former Conservative borough councillor, Brian Ransley, who is standing for UKIP. Mr Ransley has had a few mentions on this blog.
Finally, the contest in Tunbridge Wells West could produce a surprise. Normally a very safe Conservative seat, UKIP has won two seats from the Conservatives on the Borough Council in Rusthall ward. Last year UKIP gained a seat by ousting the Leader of the Borough Council.
Wednesday, 14 November 2012
Police and Crime Commissioner election is TOMORROW
Tomorrow, Thursday 15th November, is election day for the the Kent Police and Crime Commissioner elections. Sadly, the turnout is expected to be very low. Information on the candidates can be read here
Tuesday, 13 November 2012
Kent Police and Crime Commissioner election
The time as I write is 17.00 on Tuesday 13th November. On 15th November the election will be held for the position of Kent Police and Crime Commissioner. I have not received an election 'communication' from any of the candidates - the first time in 45 years that I have not received anything from any of the candidates at an election.
Admittedly, I have been following the election on the Internet, perusing the candidates' websites, as well as watching the videos of the hustings. Many people either do not have Internet access, or if they have, do not necessarily use it to seek out the views of the candidates.
I can understand the problems English Democrats and the two Independents have is delivering election leaflets across Kent. What has surprised me is that I have not received a Labour,Conservative or UKIP leaflets as these three parties distributed leaflets in abundance at the May local elections.
I know the Conservatives have been delivering leaflets. One Conservative councillor has been out and about in Sherwood and I espied a Conservative councillor in Langton making deliveries.
UPDATE: Received an election address from the Conservative candidate late this afternoon, Wednesday 14th November.
Admittedly, I have been following the election on the Internet, perusing the candidates' websites, as well as watching the videos of the hustings. Many people either do not have Internet access, or if they have, do not necessarily use it to seek out the views of the candidates.
I can understand the problems English Democrats and the two Independents have is delivering election leaflets across Kent. What has surprised me is that I have not received a Labour,Conservative or UKIP leaflets as these three parties distributed leaflets in abundance at the May local elections.
I know the Conservatives have been delivering leaflets. One Conservative councillor has been out and about in Sherwood and I espied a Conservative councillor in Langton making deliveries.
UPDATE: Received an election address from the Conservative candidate late this afternoon, Wednesday 14th November.
Friday, 22 June 2012
John Dutton opines
John Dutton has a letter in today's local newspaper which repeats comments in previous letters.
His (Bob Atwood) excellent leadership, coupled with James Scholes' good stewardship......
He goes on to state:
The main factors in Bob's defeat were dissatisfaction with his party's national leadership and actions, together with overblown anti-EU publicity, coinciding with a new UKIP local candidate in his ward, where there was already a well-known UKIP councillor. In an ideal world, local and national politics would be kept at arm's length, but in today's world this is an unattainable goal, given the ever pervasive ignorance and boredom of most electors concerning their local councils activities.
Fair enough, but back in April John Dutton had this to say in the local press:
...may I urge that we use the May local elections to signal our disapproval and lack of confidence in the current government, by not voting for their local candidates.
The local electorate followed his advice. Not much good extolling the leadership of the Council and then proposing people should not vote for them.
See: http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/john-dutton-changes-tack.html
His (Bob Atwood) excellent leadership, coupled with James Scholes' good stewardship......
He goes on to state:
The main factors in Bob's defeat were dissatisfaction with his party's national leadership and actions, together with overblown anti-EU publicity, coinciding with a new UKIP local candidate in his ward, where there was already a well-known UKIP councillor. In an ideal world, local and national politics would be kept at arm's length, but in today's world this is an unattainable goal, given the ever pervasive ignorance and boredom of most electors concerning their local councils activities.
Fair enough, but back in April John Dutton had this to say in the local press:
...may I urge that we use the May local elections to signal our disapproval and lack of confidence in the current government, by not voting for their local candidates.
The local electorate followed his advice. Not much good extolling the leadership of the Council and then proposing people should not vote for them.
See: http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/john-dutton-changes-tack.html
Friday, 15 June 2012
Atwood under attack in local press
Following his not unexpected electoral defeat at the hands of UKIP, Bob Atwood, the former Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council, was not magnanimous in defeat. Whilst attacking the campaign of UKIP was fair enough, after all politics is a rough trade, the implication of the comments was to blame the electorate for supporting a party he described as xenophobic, jingoistic and possessing basest instincts. Rather foolish, particularly if you plan to seek the same electorates' vote in the future.
http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Tunbridge-Wells-council-leader-open-comeback/story-16312695-detail/story.html
The response hit the letters column of today's edition of local newspaper.
Some of the comments.
(he) should graciously recognise that the electorate have spoken
Bob must stop feeling sorry for himself
He should learn to accept defeat with a little grace
He should not demonise people who did not turn out to vote for him.
Some, of the letter writers are UKIP members or supporters and one has to allow for bias. But others are not, and collectively the letters express opinions held by some Rusthall people from across the political spectrum.
I believe Bob Atwood was unlucky to lose his seat as he was a good ward member.
Rather than mounting his attack, Bob Atwood would do well to consider why people were not drawn to vote for him. He has indicated a possible interest in standing as county councillor in 2013. But where? My understanding is that there is a potential vacancy in Cranbrook. However which of the other county councillors in Tunbridge Wells is retiring or is likely to have difficulty being reselected? Doesn't take much to work out.
http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Tunbridge-Wells-council-leader-open-comeback/story-16312695-detail/story.html
The response hit the letters column of today's edition of local newspaper.
Some of the comments.
(he) should graciously recognise that the electorate have spoken
Bob must stop feeling sorry for himself
He should learn to accept defeat with a little grace
He should not demonise people who did not turn out to vote for him.
Some, of the letter writers are UKIP members or supporters and one has to allow for bias. But others are not, and collectively the letters express opinions held by some Rusthall people from across the political spectrum.
I believe Bob Atwood was unlucky to lose his seat as he was a good ward member.
Rather than mounting his attack, Bob Atwood would do well to consider why people were not drawn to vote for him. He has indicated a possible interest in standing as county councillor in 2013. But where? My understanding is that there is a potential vacancy in Cranbrook. However which of the other county councillors in Tunbridge Wells is retiring or is likely to have difficulty being reselected? Doesn't take much to work out.
Reflections on Tunbridge Wells East Tory win
My prediction that the Conservatives would hold, by a small margin, the Kent County Council seat of Tunbridge Wells East proved correct.
The poll at the 2009 election was 37%, yesterday it was 27%
2009:
Conservative 49%, Liberal Democrat 32%, UKIP 12%, Labour 7%
2372 1532 585 324
2012:
Conservative 32%, Liberal Democrat 28%, UKIP 28%, Labour 9%, Green 3%
1171 1022 1000 321 109
UKIP put a huge effort into winning the seat. Nigel Farage, MEP made an appearance. UKIP more than doubled its vote and should gain great satisfaction from this.
The Liberal Democrat vote held up well. Labour was never going to do well in the seat.
The Conservatives doubtless are breathing a huge sigh of relief at holding the seat. It was never going to be easy when set in the context of the national political scene, to which should be added that the previous Conservative councillor was very popular and had the support of people who normally would not vote Conservative.
Overall, the outcome is that the seat is now a three-way marginal, whereas it was previously a comfortable Conservative hold.
The next election is in 2013. An Independent councillor for one of the three Tunbridge Wells Borough Council wards which make up the KCC division has been quoted in the local press as considering standing for the county council in 2013. He won the borough council ward seat from the Conservatives, having previously been a Conservative councillor.
The poll at the 2009 election was 37%, yesterday it was 27%
2009:
Conservative 49%, Liberal Democrat 32%, UKIP 12%, Labour 7%
2372 1532 585 324
2012:
Conservative 32%, Liberal Democrat 28%, UKIP 28%, Labour 9%, Green 3%
1171 1022 1000 321 109
UKIP put a huge effort into winning the seat. Nigel Farage, MEP made an appearance. UKIP more than doubled its vote and should gain great satisfaction from this.
The Liberal Democrat vote held up well. Labour was never going to do well in the seat.
The Conservatives doubtless are breathing a huge sigh of relief at holding the seat. It was never going to be easy when set in the context of the national political scene, to which should be added that the previous Conservative councillor was very popular and had the support of people who normally would not vote Conservative.
Overall, the outcome is that the seat is now a three-way marginal, whereas it was previously a comfortable Conservative hold.
The next election is in 2013. An Independent councillor for one of the three Tunbridge Wells Borough Council wards which make up the KCC division has been quoted in the local press as considering standing for the county council in 2013. He won the borough council ward seat from the Conservatives, having previously been a Conservative councillor.
Tories see off UKIP threat.
The Conservatives held on to Tunbridge Wells East, but with a much reduced majority and percentage of the vote. An excellent performance in the circumstances. Poor turnout probably helped the Conservatives who will be delighted that the UKIP juggernaut has been checked.
Election results for Tunbridge Wells East (Wards: Pembury, Sherwood, St James')
Kent County Council By-Election - Thursday, 14th June, 2012
- Status: Published
By-Election for Tunbridge Wells East (Kent County Council Division)
Friday, 8 June 2012
Hotting up in Tunbridge Wells East
The Conservatives are out in force as they seek to hold the Kent County Council seat at next Thursday's by-election. The Liberal Democrats are campaigning hard as are the supporters of the United Kingdom Independence Party.
Too close to call?
UKIP has thrown its big gun into the campaign with a visit from Nigel Farage MEP.
Too close to call?
UKIP has thrown its big gun into the campaign with a visit from Nigel Farage MEP.
Friday, 1 June 2012
Tory turmoil in Tunbridge Wells?
The Conservatives in Tunbridge Wells are nervous about the outcome of the Kent County Council by-election in the Tunbridge Wells East Division. The local newspaper carries an article which refers to an e-mail to party members (which I have not seen) in which (according to the press) reference is made to more party members from Folkestone and Dover delivering literature and canvassing in the Division than members of the Tunbridge Wells Association. UKIP is seen as the main threat, either by winning the seat or taking Conservative votes and letting the Liberal Democrats in.
The article mentions that the leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, who lives in Westerham, may join the campaign trail. To win a county council seat in Kent would be a major achievement for the party.
I commented on the impending by-election in an earlier post.
http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/close-contest-in-tunbridge-wells-east.html
The by-election has been triggered by the tragic death of Kevin Lynes whose work in the Division championing in particular deprived communities earned him respect and the votes of people whom one would not consider 'natural' Conservative voters. Has the Conservative candidate in the by-election a track record of community engagement and responsiveness to local issues? Is he known in Sherwood, where Kevin Lynes did so much of his work?
Of course, the steady drip of bad news about the Conservatives nationally will not help, not should it assist the Liberal Democrats who are yoked to the Conservatives in the Coalition. Labour and the Greens will not win the by-election, but who will?
In recent years at Tunbridge Wells Borough Council elections the Conservatives have had comfortable majorities in Sherwood and the Liberal Democrats easy wins in St James.
The joker is Pembury. When the Conservative Group on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council ousted Roy Bullock as leader of the council a Conservative councillor representing Pembury resigned. At the by-election to fill the vacancy the seat was won by the Liberal Democrats, it is believed mainly because some Tories voted UKIP. In May 2011 UKIP did not contest the seat and the Conservatives won the seat quite easily.
In May 2012 the former Conservative councillor stood as an Independent and won with a good majority. However, a second seat in Pembury was contested, as the Liberal Democrat victor at the by-election stood down. The sitting Conservative councillor was re-elected, but the second Conservative candidate was only one vote in front of UKIP. To complicate matters further, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats had only one candidate each.
Until a few days ago I was of the opinion that the Conservatives would hold on to the seat. However, my opinion is changing. It cannot be helpful to the Conservatives that their concerns are paraded across the local press. The fear of losing the seat will be pounced on by opposition parties as evidence to present to the electorate that the result is not a 'shoe-in' for the Conservatives.
See: http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Tories-fear-repeat-UKIP-battering/story-16249273-detail/story.html
The article mentions that the leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, who lives in Westerham, may join the campaign trail. To win a county council seat in Kent would be a major achievement for the party.
I commented on the impending by-election in an earlier post.
http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/close-contest-in-tunbridge-wells-east.html
The by-election has been triggered by the tragic death of Kevin Lynes whose work in the Division championing in particular deprived communities earned him respect and the votes of people whom one would not consider 'natural' Conservative voters. Has the Conservative candidate in the by-election a track record of community engagement and responsiveness to local issues? Is he known in Sherwood, where Kevin Lynes did so much of his work?
Of course, the steady drip of bad news about the Conservatives nationally will not help, not should it assist the Liberal Democrats who are yoked to the Conservatives in the Coalition. Labour and the Greens will not win the by-election, but who will?
In recent years at Tunbridge Wells Borough Council elections the Conservatives have had comfortable majorities in Sherwood and the Liberal Democrats easy wins in St James.
The joker is Pembury. When the Conservative Group on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council ousted Roy Bullock as leader of the council a Conservative councillor representing Pembury resigned. At the by-election to fill the vacancy the seat was won by the Liberal Democrats, it is believed mainly because some Tories voted UKIP. In May 2011 UKIP did not contest the seat and the Conservatives won the seat quite easily.
In May 2012 the former Conservative councillor stood as an Independent and won with a good majority. However, a second seat in Pembury was contested, as the Liberal Democrat victor at the by-election stood down. The sitting Conservative councillor was re-elected, but the second Conservative candidate was only one vote in front of UKIP. To complicate matters further, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats had only one candidate each.
Until a few days ago I was of the opinion that the Conservatives would hold on to the seat. However, my opinion is changing. It cannot be helpful to the Conservatives that their concerns are paraded across the local press. The fear of losing the seat will be pounced on by opposition parties as evidence to present to the electorate that the result is not a 'shoe-in' for the Conservatives.
See: http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Tories-fear-repeat-UKIP-battering/story-16249273-detail/story.html
Monday, 28 May 2012
Close contest in Tunbridge Wells East?
The by-election in Tunbridge Wells East to elect a replacement for Kevin Lynes on Kent County Council could be a close contest. The voting at the May elections in the three Tunbridge Wells Borough Council wards which make up the county division produced the following:
Conservative: 1543, Liberal Democrat 1225, UKIP 1041, Independent 836, Labour 646.
The Green Party is contesting the by-election. It is not possible to extrapolate the borough results into a prediction of the outcome of the by-election, the reason being that in the borough election in Pembury two seats were up for grabs and the Independent won with 836 votes. A Conservative came second with 736 votes. Third place went to the Conservatives with 506 votes and UKIP came fourth with 505 votes. The Liberal Democrats secured 312 votes. UKIP and the Liberal Democrats both fielded only one candidate. How did people who voted Independent, Liberal Democrat or UKIP use their second vote?
A Green or Labour win can be discounted, but what of the others? The Liberal Democrats had a massive hold in St James, came a poor last in Sherwood and with 312 votes were well behind UKIP in Pembury. UKIP came a strong second in Sherwood and last in St James.
The Liberal Democrats are mounting a strong campaign and have the Leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council as their candidate. UKIP will be hoping to cash in on their success in Rusthall in ousting the Conservative Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council.
The Conservative candidate contested St James at the borough election and came a distant second.
It should be a Conservative hold, but who am I to judge? After all, I predicted the Conservatives would hold on in Rusthall.
Conservative: 1543, Liberal Democrat 1225, UKIP 1041, Independent 836, Labour 646.
The Green Party is contesting the by-election. It is not possible to extrapolate the borough results into a prediction of the outcome of the by-election, the reason being that in the borough election in Pembury two seats were up for grabs and the Independent won with 836 votes. A Conservative came second with 736 votes. Third place went to the Conservatives with 506 votes and UKIP came fourth with 505 votes. The Liberal Democrats secured 312 votes. UKIP and the Liberal Democrats both fielded only one candidate. How did people who voted Independent, Liberal Democrat or UKIP use their second vote?
A Green or Labour win can be discounted, but what of the others? The Liberal Democrats had a massive hold in St James, came a poor last in Sherwood and with 312 votes were well behind UKIP in Pembury. UKIP came a strong second in Sherwood and last in St James.
The Liberal Democrats are mounting a strong campaign and have the Leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council as their candidate. UKIP will be hoping to cash in on their success in Rusthall in ousting the Conservative Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council.
The Conservative candidate contested St James at the borough election and came a distant second.
It should be a Conservative hold, but who am I to judge? After all, I predicted the Conservatives would hold on in Rusthall.
Friday, 11 May 2012
Confused Courier
According to The Courier newspaper there is going to be a by election on 14th June in the Kent County Council division, Tunbridge Wells Rural East.
'Rural' is hardly descriptive of Sherwood. The by-election is in Tunbridge Wells East. The county councillor for Tunbridge Wells Rural is Alex King MBE.
2009 result:
'Rural' is hardly descriptive of Sherwood. The by-election is in Tunbridge Wells East. The county councillor for Tunbridge Wells Rural is Alex King MBE.
2009 result:
| Turnout % | Majority % |
|---|---|
| 37.30 | 840 |
| Candidates | Party | Votes | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| LYNES, Kevin Graham | The Conservative Party Candidate | 2372 | 9.67% |
| NEVE, David John | Liberal Democrat | 1532 | -4.81% |
| GAYLER, Eileen Alice | U.K. Independence Party | 585 | 12.15% |
| RICH, Tim | The Labour Party Candidate | 324 | -10.92% |
The rise of UKIP in Tunbridge Wells
UKIP is celebrating its success in winning a seat in Rusthall, defeating the Conservative Leader of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council. The party now holds two seats on the council, both in Rusthall. Elsewhere in the borough, UKIP had a solid second place in Sherwood (30%) and managed second place (just) with 15% of the vote in Culverden.
UKIP won its first seat in Rusthall in 2011 following a strong campaign and a very poor Conservative campaign. The Conservatives put a huge effort into retaining the seat in 2012, contrary to the opinion expressed in the local newspaper that they were complacent and took the electorate for granted. The MP for Tunbridge Wells was seen pressing the flesh in Rusthall.
The recent success of UKIP on Tunbridge Wells is a consequence of a number of factors:
UKIP won its first seat in Rusthall in 2011 following a strong campaign and a very poor Conservative campaign. The Conservatives put a huge effort into retaining the seat in 2012, contrary to the opinion expressed in the local newspaper that they were complacent and took the electorate for granted. The MP for Tunbridge Wells was seen pressing the flesh in Rusthall.
The recent success of UKIP on Tunbridge Wells is a consequence of a number of factors:
- Growing anti-EU sentiment.
- Traditional Tory voters perceive UKIP as more in keeping with their views that the 'modernised' Conservative Party.
- The party the 'protest vote' moves to. The Liberal Democrats no longer attract protest votes as the party is part of the coalition.
- The Labour Party is insignificant in Tunbridge Wells.
- The poor performance of the coalition government in the weeks leading up to the local elections.
In Rusthall the election literature of the UKIP candidate made no reference to any issue local to the ward. Indeed, apart from a swipe at the decision to raise Council Tax, the literature concentrated on the EU and immigration and made no reference to borough issues.
So, whatever motivated the Rusthall electorate it was not the merits of UKIP's policies for Rusthall and Tunbridge Wells.
The next challenge for the Conservatives is the election of a new Leader of the Council. A number of potential candidates have been mentioned in the local press, but we do not know who has decided to throw a hat into the ring.
The election caravan now moves on to the vacant Kent County Council seat in Tunbridge Wells East Division. A few weeks ago I would have had this down as a routine Conservative hold. Now I am not so sure. UKIP will fight hard following the good result in Sherwood and people who voted Independent in Pembury might be tempted to vote UKIP. Although the Liberal Democrats did well in their stronghold, St James (62%), the party secured only 9% in Sherwood and 10% in Pembury.
The seat became vacant on the death of Kevin Lynes, who built up a strong and deserved personal vote.
2009 result:
The seat became vacant on the death of Kevin Lynes, who built up a strong and deserved personal vote.
2009 result:
| Turnout % | Majority % |
|---|---|
| 37.30 | 840 |
| Candidates | Party | Votes | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| LYNES, Kevin Graham | The Conservative Party Candidate | 2372 | 9.67% |
| NEVE, David John | Liberal Democrat | 1532 | -4.81% |
| GAYLER, Eileen Alice | U.K. Independence Party | 585 | 12.15% |
| RICH, Tim | The Labour Party Candidate | 324 | -10.92% |
Friday, 4 May 2012
Tory blues
Robert Atwood lost his seat on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council to UKIP. In defeat he was quoted thus:
“I’m shocked but not surprised. I just feel sorry that the people of Rusthall now have two councillors they will come to regret having elected.”
There's magnanimity for you! Nothing is gained by criticising the electorate. Sounds more like sour grapes.
However, there is a more important matter looming, the by-election for Kevin Lynes' Kent County Council division. Looking at the results in the three wards which make up the division, it should be a Conservative hold.
Doubtless UKIP will be up for the contest but I cannot see them winning the seat, although they came second to the Conservatives in Sherwood with 30% of the vote.
The Liberal Democrats had a strong result in St James, a poor result in Sherwood and lost a seat in Pembury. Labour is not in with a shout. What will be interesting is how people who voted for the Independent in Pembury (who topped the poll in a two seat contest) use their vote at the forthcoming by-election. Given the success of the Independent in Pembury, another Independent may chance his/her arm at the by-election.
The Conservatives will need to take care in their selection of a candidate. Sherwood, St James and Pembury have little in common except, as Kevin Lynes understood well, serious issues of deprivation in St James and Sherwood. They need to find a candidate who understands community and deprivation issues and has a track record of community engagement.
Unfortunately the Local Government Committee does not inspire confidence. After all it was this committee which re-selected the member for Capel.
The by-election will be held on 14th June.
“I’m shocked but not surprised. I just feel sorry that the people of Rusthall now have two councillors they will come to regret having elected.”
There's magnanimity for you! Nothing is gained by criticising the electorate. Sounds more like sour grapes.
See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-17925381
I have not worked out why his defeat is a 'disaster' for Tunbridge Wells.
I have not worked out why his defeat is a 'disaster' for Tunbridge Wells.
However, there is a more important matter looming, the by-election for Kevin Lynes' Kent County Council division. Looking at the results in the three wards which make up the division, it should be a Conservative hold.
Doubtless UKIP will be up for the contest but I cannot see them winning the seat, although they came second to the Conservatives in Sherwood with 30% of the vote.
The Liberal Democrats had a strong result in St James, a poor result in Sherwood and lost a seat in Pembury. Labour is not in with a shout. What will be interesting is how people who voted for the Independent in Pembury (who topped the poll in a two seat contest) use their vote at the forthcoming by-election. Given the success of the Independent in Pembury, another Independent may chance his/her arm at the by-election.
The Conservatives will need to take care in their selection of a candidate. Sherwood, St James and Pembury have little in common except, as Kevin Lynes understood well, serious issues of deprivation in St James and Sherwood. They need to find a candidate who understands community and deprivation issues and has a track record of community engagement.
Unfortunately the Local Government Committee does not inspire confidence. After all it was this committee which re-selected the member for Capel.
The by-election will be held on 14th June.
Tunbridge Wells elections
In one sense the election results do not change much in Tunbridge Wells. The Conservatives retain a big majority. The Conservatives gained two seats from the Liberal Democrats, lost one seat to Labour, one to UKIP and one to the Independent.
The changes to the parties' representation are:
CON: -2
LD: -1
LAB: +1
UKIP: +1
IND: +1
My predictions were made on 4 April, before the budget, the furore over Jeremy Hunt, and the fuel 'crisis'. In the circumstances the Conservatives did well to hold St John's and Sherwood and gain a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Broadwater.
The loss by the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats in Capel surprised me. Regular readers of this blog will know the recent history of former councillor Brian Ransley. The local Conservative Association Executive Council de-selected him, but he was re-instated by the Local Government Committee and fully supported by the Leader of the Council. The Executive Council has been vindicated by the sensible people of Capel.
The 'big story' is the defeat of the Leader of the Council by UKIP in the ward where I live, Rusthall. Had it not been for the problems of the Coalition government he might have held his seat. In 2011 the Conservatives lost a seat to UKIP by 74 votes, this time it was by 46 votes.
UKIP came a good second in Sherwood (30%) with Labour trailing on (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)
The immediate issue for the Conservative Group will be who to recommend as the new Leader of the Council. Whoever is chosen then will have to appoint his/her cabinet.
Both Labour and UKIP will be pleased to have doubled their representation on the Council. Each party will now be a 'Group' and by having 2 councillors each, will be able to use the Council's standing orders to good effect. Two councillors sit as Independents but it is doubtful if they will form a Group, particularly as one is Mayor-elect.
The changes to the parties' representation are:
CON: -2
LD: -1
LAB: +1
UKIP: +1
IND: +1
My predictions were made on 4 April, before the budget, the furore over Jeremy Hunt, and the fuel 'crisis'. In the circumstances the Conservatives did well to hold St John's and Sherwood and gain a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Broadwater.
The loss by the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats in Capel surprised me. Regular readers of this blog will know the recent history of former councillor Brian Ransley. The local Conservative Association Executive Council de-selected him, but he was re-instated by the Local Government Committee and fully supported by the Leader of the Council. The Executive Council has been vindicated by the sensible people of Capel.
The 'big story' is the defeat of the Leader of the Council by UKIP in the ward where I live, Rusthall. Had it not been for the problems of the Coalition government he might have held his seat. In 2011 the Conservatives lost a seat to UKIP by 74 votes, this time it was by 46 votes.
UKIP came a good second in Sherwood (30%) with Labour trailing on (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)
The immediate issue for the Conservative Group will be who to recommend as the new Leader of the Council. Whoever is chosen then will have to appoint his/her cabinet.
Both Labour and UKIP will be pleased to have doubled their representation on the Council. Each party will now be a 'Group' and by having 2 councillors each, will be able to use the Council's standing orders to good effect. Two councillors sit as Independents but it is doubtful if they will form a Group, particularly as one is Mayor-elect.
Inquest on my election predictions for Tunbridge Wells
Inquest on my predictions.
St Johns.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. Will be a fierce contest. Last year a Con gain from Lib Dem. Con defending the seat. Could be close. I anticipate a Con hold. CON hold
After the elections I will add a post analysing how good, or bad, my predictions are.
Some interesting contests
The list of candidates for the local elections in Tunbridge Wells has been published. It is not the final list, candidates may withdraw, but it is unlikely that any will so do. 16 wards are being contested, and in 2 of the wards there are two seats up for grabs.
The Conservatives and Labour Party are fighting all 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 13, UKIP 12, Independents 2 and the Green Party 1.
My initial observations.
Benenden & Cranbrook.
A Con/Lab contest which I expect Con to hold. Surprised there is no Lib Dem as the party holds one seat. In the past there have been Independent councillors. CON hold
Brenchley and Horsmonden.
A Con/Lab contest. Con should hold. CON hold
Broadwater.
Two seats to be contested, one by the sitting Con, the other a vacancy arising from the death of a Lib Dem councillor. Con/Labour/Lib Dem each has 2 candidates and there is 1 UKIP candidate. Hard to call, possibly 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem to win. CON hold. CON win from LIB DEM
Capel:
Con/Lib Dem/Labour candidates. This is the seat of councillor Ransley. Sadly, I think it will be a Con hold. LIB DEM win from CON
Culverden.
Con/Lib Dem/Labour/UKIP/Green candidates. This is a very safe Con seat. CON hold
Goudhurst & Lamberhurst.
Con/Lab/Independent. The sitting Con should have no problem holding the seat. CON hold
Hawkhurst & Sandhurst.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. CON hold.
Pantiles & St Marks.
Con/Lab/UKIP. Expect a Con hold. CON hold
Park.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. CON hold
Pembury.
Two seats being contested, one the sitting Con councillor, the other resulting from the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor. The former Lib Dem councillor won a by-election brought about by the resignation of a Con councillor, who is standing at this election as an Independent. Con lost the by-election as a consequence of defections to UKIP.
Candidates: Con 2/Lab2/ Lib Dems 1/ Ind/1 UKIP 1.
Very hard to call. Much will depend on how people voting Lib Dem/Ind/UKIP use their second vote. My inclination is towards 2 seats for Con. IND win from CON and CON win from LIB DEM.
Rusthall.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP
Last year this seat was a UKIP gain from Con, with Lib Dem not far behind. Expect a far better campaign from Con this year. The Con is the Leader of the Council. I expect a Con hold, just.
The Conservatives and Labour Party are fighting all 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 13, UKIP 12, Independents 2 and the Green Party 1.
My initial observations.
Benenden & Cranbrook.
A Con/Lab contest which I expect Con to hold. Surprised there is no Lib Dem as the party holds one seat. In the past there have been Independent councillors. CON hold
Brenchley and Horsmonden.
A Con/Lab contest. Con should hold. CON hold
Broadwater.
Two seats to be contested, one by the sitting Con, the other a vacancy arising from the death of a Lib Dem councillor. Con/Labour/Lib Dem each has 2 candidates and there is 1 UKIP candidate. Hard to call, possibly 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem to win. CON hold. CON win from LIB DEM
Capel:
Con/Lib Dem/Labour candidates. This is the seat of councillor Ransley. Sadly, I think it will be a Con hold. LIB DEM win from CON
Culverden.
Con/Lib Dem/Labour/UKIP/Green candidates. This is a very safe Con seat. CON hold
Goudhurst & Lamberhurst.
Con/Lab/Independent. The sitting Con should have no problem holding the seat. CON hold
Hawkhurst & Sandhurst.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. CON hold.
Pantiles & St Marks.
Con/Lab/UKIP. Expect a Con hold. CON hold
Park.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. CON hold
Pembury.
Two seats being contested, one the sitting Con councillor, the other resulting from the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor. The former Lib Dem councillor won a by-election brought about by the resignation of a Con councillor, who is standing at this election as an Independent. Con lost the by-election as a consequence of defections to UKIP.
Candidates: Con 2/Lab2/ Lib Dems 1/ Ind/1 UKIP 1.
Very hard to call. Much will depend on how people voting Lib Dem/Ind/UKIP use their second vote. My inclination is towards 2 seats for Con. IND win from CON and CON win from LIB DEM.
Rusthall.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP
Last year this seat was a UKIP gain from Con, with Lib Dem not far behind. Expect a far better campaign from Con this year. The Con is the Leader of the Council. I expect a Con hold, just.
UKIP win from CON
Sherwood.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. No English Democrat standing. Anticipate a Con hold. CON hold. However a surge in the UKIP vote (30%) beating Labour (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)
Southborough & High Brooms.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. Con lost this seat to Lab last May. In a by-election to Southborough Town Council Con won a seat from Lab. I expect a Lab gain from Con. LAB win from CON
Speldhurst & Bidborough.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. A very safe Con seat. CON hold
St James.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. A Lib Dem stronghold. Should be a Lib Dem hold. LIB DEM hold
Sherwood.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. No English Democrat standing. Anticipate a Con hold. CON hold. However a surge in the UKIP vote (30%) beating Labour (19%) and Lib Dem (9%)
Southborough & High Brooms.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. Con lost this seat to Lab last May. In a by-election to Southborough Town Council Con won a seat from Lab. I expect a Lab gain from Con. LAB win from CON
Speldhurst & Bidborough.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. A very safe Con seat. CON hold
St James.
Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP. A Lib Dem stronghold. Should be a Lib Dem hold. LIB DEM hold
St Johns.
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/UKIP. Will be a fierce contest. Last year a Con gain from Lib Dem. Con defending the seat. Could be close. I anticipate a Con hold. CON hold
After the elections I will add a post analysing how good, or bad, my predictions are.
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