English Democrats: can they avoid disintegration?

The current malaise within the English Democrats (ED) reminds me of an aircraft disaster movie: the pilot clutching the joy-stick in a desperate attempt to pull the aircraft out of a death dive. Will the aircraft smash into the ground, or level-out and everyone live happily ever after?

Currently, the former is more likely for the ED than the latter. All hope is not lost, but it will be a close run thing. 

Financially the ED is solvent, although there is an overhang of soft loans of over £200,000 to be repaid.  The ED does not have to repay the loans until it has funds to enable it so to do.  The ED claims a membership of over 3,500 but income levels suggest a fully-paid membership of well under 2,000.  Details of the financial position are on the Electoral Commission website.  Not the easiest of sites to navigate.  See: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/PEF-online-registers/statements-of-account .

The ED lost members during the course of the past twelve months.  There have been high-profile resignations for reasons I have posted on this blog. One thread running through statements made by individuals who have resigned is a concern that ex- BNP members are being welcomed into the party and that over time this will result in the party changing from a civic nationalist party into an ethnic nationalist party.  It has not happened yet, but it could, so the argument runs.  Political parties do change their policies to reflect what is happening in the world and the issues which drive party activists. 

Thus, the Labour Party led by Clement Attlee had a different philosophy from that of Tony Blair, indeed it became known as 'New Labour'. As the centre of gravity changes within a party, so policies will change.  For the ED the question is whether its centre of gravity changes as refugees from the BNP seek a new home. Will the loss of members opposed to the influx of ex-BNP members be counter-balanced by ex-BNP members?  Of course, it is more than simply a numbers game.  The loss of relatively inactive members and their replacement by fewer battle-hardened political activists may benefit the ED in organisational terms.  The tentative conclusion I draw is that purely in organisational terms the ED will not crash.

However, the real battle is out on the streets, convincing the electorate to vote for the party in much larger numbers than the paltry numbers that have done so in the past.  Will the party steer clear of ethnic nationalism in the future?  If it doesn't its electoral prospects are grim. 

No political party operates in a vacuum.  Some of the ED ex-members have joined UKIP, which like the ED, seeks withdrawal from the European Union.  UKIP is current giving consideration to approving a policy of supporting the establishment of an English parliament, which is the main plank of ED policy.  Should this happen, then the ED will have to find something distinctive in its policies to dispose the electorate to vote for it rather than UKIP.  This, above all else, is the major test for the ED, and it may prove unachievable, in which case the party's long-term prospects are very poor.