Theology Ramblings

Saturday, 10 December 2011

BBC acts as EU publicity department.

Enjoyed this from the Conservative Home blog:

See: http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/cameron-enjoys-his-best-ever-newspaper-coverage-but-the-bbc-is-spinning-for-brussels.html

Community group sizes up proposed development.

When the Knights Park, Tunbridge Wells complex was developed the road into the site was constructed from Longfield Road. To reach the car park serving the cinema, pubs, fitness centre etc it is necessary to make a right turn, the road straight ahead being a short stub. This is followed by a sharp turn left into the car park and again there is a short stub straight ahead. Clearly the two stubs were built with an eye to future development.

Now there is a proposal to build on land reached from the second stub. See:

http://knightspark.info/

Whatever form the development takes, it will put even more traffic onto Longfield Road which already is heavily congested and prone to gridlock.

I am pleased to note that a community group, Slow Down on Sherwood & Stay Safe, is taking a very keen interest in this development and getting stuck into the consultation being undertaken by the developer.

Euro Summit Archive (2)

Friday, 9 December 2011

The long march

Yesterday, I penned the following:

Make no mistake, we are on the cusp of a defining moment in European history whatever happens over the next few days.

The UK has been consigned to isolation on the edge of the EU. Is this the first stage of a long march to withdrawal from the EU? Much will depend on how the 27 relate to the UK. Make it difficult for the UK government to defend decisions taken by the 27 and the likelihood of withdrawal will grow.

There are serious issues, raised by Cameron and echoed in the Spiegel link below about the constitutional nightmare that is developing as a consequence of the decisions taken at the EU summit.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802678,00.html

This knock-about article is worth perusal.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013758/europes-blithering-idiots-and-their-flim-flam-treaty/

Whatever else the EU summit achieved , it did nothing to counter the sovereign debt crisis within the eurozone and nothing to create growth which is the only way countries such as Greece and Italy can ever hope to escape austerity.

What it did do was extend German influence, aided and abetted by poodle France.

Speeding vehicles in Rusthall (4)

In a previous post I expressed doubts concerning the value of speed indicators being installed on Lower Green Road in Rusthall. Walking down the said road today I was accosted by a resident who expressed the opinion that the indicators 'will be a waste of time and money'. I concur.

The resident complained that the parish council had not consulted people living in Lower Green Road about the idea of installing the speed indicators, nor on the locations for the devices. The cost of the two indicators is circa £8,000 and coming from Kent County Council and not Rusthall Parish Council, but it is public money nonetheless that is being squandered.

The need is for road narrowing and giving precedence to traffic in one direction.

Euro summit archive

Acres of comment following the EU summit:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/75217104/Euro-Area-Leaders-Statement

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8945155/EU-suffers-worst-split-in-history-as-David-Cameron-blocks-treaty-change.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013758/europes-blithering-idiots-and-their-flim-flam-treaty/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8945550/EU-treaty-change-main-points.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8945213/EU-treaty-David-Camerons-veto-creates-new-era-for-Europe-and-Coalition.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8945415/EU-treaty-David-Cameron-has-played-a-blinder-says-Boris-Johnson.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100122800/morning-briefing-david-cameron-had-no-choice-but-to-say-non/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100013748/if-the-euro-fails-there-is-only-one-culprit-as-far-as-france-is-concerned-the-city/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/charlescrawford/100122921/right-now-isolated-is-a-damn-good-thing-for-britain-to-be/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100122822/david-cameron-has-swung-the-handbag-now-what/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100122896/what-david-cameron-really-thinks-of-nicolas-sarkozy/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100123010/camerons-veto-is-the-first-step-towards-a-new-relationship-with-our-fellow-europeans/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16116276
Cameron defends decision to block EU-wide treaty

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16104275
Cameron blocks EU-wide deal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16106621
UK alone

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16104089
Euro deal reached without UK

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802703,00.html
The birth of a two-speed Europe

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802728,00.html
Bye Bye Britain

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802674,00.html
Fear of two-speed Europe

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802678,00.html
Questioning the legality of of a separate Euro treaty/

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Disintegration!

Never has the risk of disintegration been greater for Europe Mr Sarkozy informed us he ramped up the rhetoric before the Brussels summit. Begs the questions oft asked on this blog:

Why was the eurozone permitted to develop without fiscal union?

Why were countries admitted that failed to meet the criteria for membership?

What have the EU and the politicians been doing for the past 18 months?

It is the ones who conceived and gave birth to the sickly eurozone who failed to administer the appropriate medicine and are now fretting over whether the patient will live or die. It is a massive failure by political elites and EU commissars. In light of their record how in all honesty can we have any faith in their ability to sort out the mess they created?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16080530

No matter the posturing, breast-beating and hypocrisy that will be on display in industrial quantities at the EU summit, the real problems will continue. A damning report from the OECD on Greece offers little hope for the citizens of that nation. Never mind austerity, the administration of government is not fit for purpose. See

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802514,00.html

Finally, pithy round up of the day 8.12.2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16100258

Disquieting news from the ECB

The markets took a sharp turn south today following the comments of the ECB chief, Mr Draghi that even if the EU summit agrees tight fiscal measures the bank will help out ailing countries as it did not have the legal powers. There are those who argue that the bank could do this within existing powers. Looks as though the bank is cherry-picking legal provisions, as has Mrs Merkel.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8943661/ECB-chief-Draghi-quashes-hopes-on-bond-buying.html

See also: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16082755

See also: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8944809/Market-rout-as-ECB-dashes-bond-hopes.html
Interesting view that states may be helped by the ECB via the back door, namely by supporting banks.

Unless the ECB is given the powers of a central bank, it really will not matter what else the politicians decide in Brussels, the markets will decide for them - and quickly.

Economic peace in our time?

When Neville Chamberlain returned from his audience with 'Herr Hitler' he waved in the air a piece of paper Hitler had signed. A grateful nation issued a collective sigh of relief; peace in our time. Memories of the carnage of the Great War still scarred the collective conscience. Peace was what the population was aching for. The folly of appeasement became apparent very shortly afterwards.

Will Cameron return from the EU summit clutching a communique promising economic order out of the carnage of the eurozone? What price will the UK pay? What concessions will have been wrung from the maw of the EU, France and Germany?

Make no mistake, we are on the cusp of a defining moment in European history whatever happens over the next few days.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013721/better-a-horrible-end-for-euroland-or-endless-horror/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100122393/david-cameron-support-of-the-euro-is-honourable-yet-it-could-ruin-him/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100122495/statesman-or-sellout-david-camerons-euro-challenge/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8940736/Britain-needs-clarity-from-Cameron-and-resolve.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/8943573/David-Cameron-I-will-make-sure-Britain-gets-a-fair-deal-in-Europe.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8942666/EUs-Juncker-tells-Cameron-dont-block-summit-deal.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/fraser-nelson/8943589/David-Cameron-has-been-infected-by-Europes-technocratic-disease.html
Cameron on the receiving end of a good hiding.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/12/david-davis-mp-britain-may-never-get-a-better-opportunity-to-create-a-better-relationship-with-the-e.html
You can feel the boot being stuck in!

German unease and unease about Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802444,00.html

It is a tone that one rarely hears from Berlin on the eve of a major European Union summit. "We have the impression that some actors still haven't recognized the seriousness of the situation," a senior German government official told journalists in Berlin on Wednesday.

There are many, the official added, "who are very generous and very quick when it comes to finding new sources of financing, but have difficulties when it comes to addressing the deficiencies with the euro's design." In order to stabilize the euro, no "baby steps" will be sufficient. And there can be none of the "typical Brussels trickery" that could result in a compromise deal short of what the public and the markets expect.

Corrections to the EU's treaties are essential, the official said. "We aren't going to make any lazy compromises." Not exactly the kind of diplomacy one might expect from Berlin as Chancellor Angela Merkel heads to Brussels.

Arrogant German diplomacy is nothing new as Mr Chamberlain found to his and the nation's cost.

I use the word 'arrogant' in the context of the following article:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802515,00.html

"The Führer has requested our presence," an enraged diplomat from one of Germany's neighbors recently quipped, making a less-than-subtle allusion to its Nazi past. The comment followed attempts by Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, an EU policy adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel, to gain backing for Germany's position.

Without a doubt, it was a low blow. But Germany's government would be well advised to stop dismissing the underlying sentiment as nothing more than childish aggression. Indeed, it hasn't been the only such expression of displeasure. Criticism of Berlin policies can be heard coming from almost all of Europe's capitals.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801982-2,00.html

And so the specter of the ugly German has raised its head once more. In Greece, swastikas made out of the stars of the European Union flag have long been a popular motif at demonstrations, not to mention pictures of the German chancellor in a kind of SS uniform.

Hatred and loathing of Germany is gaining ground. Taken with the democratic deficit within the EU it is a recipe for an alarming breakdown in civil society.

This article pull no punches: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802591,00.html
'The Return of the Ugly Germans'.

Will this come back to haunt the Liberal Democrats?

My avid reader will need no introduction to this poster.

The message is clear, Labour won't give the people a referendum, the Tories only a limited referendum, but the Liberal Democrats want a REAL referendum on Europe.

The message is clear and unambiguous. I haven't noticed Mr Clegg saying anything about this election pledge in recent days as the clamour for a referendum has grown. Indeed he has been hiding behind the provisions of the recent European Union Act which states a referendum will be held only if there is proposal to cede further powers to Europe.

Of course when this pledge was made before the 2010 general election Clegg had no hopes of power and therefore could say anything to try and grub up a few more votes.

I am delighted to read that the poster is receiving publicity in the Daily Telegraph in the articles posted below.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100122628/for-his-own-sake-nick-clegg-must-rule-out-becoming-our-next-european-commissioner/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100112571/look-what-i-found-on-the-lib-dem-website/

http://my.telegraph.co.uk/cleggwantsareferendum/technotrader/5/5/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/04/eu-treaty-change-coalition-split

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2061798/EU-treaty-change-Nick-Clegg-clashes-David-Cameron-reform.html

Mr Clegg made great play in the first televised debate between the three main party that the Liberal Democrats were going to be a refreshing change from the tired old parties. I assume this breach of a referendum pledge is an example of what Mr Clegg meant.

Dirty tricks

The Liberal Democrats are noted for running 'dirty' election campaigns.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-16097597

Does the bell toll for Cameron?

Europe has come back to haunt the Conservatives. Will he be next on the list of Conservative PMs, Heath, Thatcher and Major whose periods of office were defined by Europe? We shall know soon enough.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8940736/Britain-needs-clarity-from-Cameron-and-resolve.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100122393/david-cameron-support-of-the-euro-is-honourable-yet-it-could-ruin-him/

How will Cameron's Coalition partners react? I expect this promise will be quietly ignored.

Accrington Stanley

Accrington Stanley FC is seeking to raise £1M by selling shares at £100 pounds each. (See link). I wish them well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-16047253

When Accrington Stanley left the League in 1961 many did not expect the club would ever return. Like Wigan Athletic, the club had failed to complete its fixtures and in those far off days clubs were not relegated but had to apply for re-election to the League. Bad form not to complete a seasson's fixtures. The 'old boys club' usually ensured re-election, but not always.

Now there is automatic relegation and promotion from and to Division 4. Until 1958 clubs were divided into Division 3 North and Division 2 South and only one club from each league was promoted to Division Two. Division 1 is now known as the Premier Division.

The Club below Division 4 is The Conference and half the clubs in the latter have been relegated from Division 4.

I remember watching Accrington Stanley in the years before the club lost its league status. One season Chesterfield lost at home 2-3. It was the third successive home loss by the same score for Chesterfield. The previous home match had been against Shrewsbury Town and I remember Arthur Rowley scoring two identical goals from the edge of the penalty area for the visitors.

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

The peasants are revolting

Boris Johnson has called for a referendum as have sundry Tory backbenchers. Not of itself fatal, but Cameron's position has been undermined severely by German rejection of Britain’s demand that the eurozone rescue deal must include legal protections for the City of London. Cameron must deliver on this, otherwise the demand for a referendum will have to be acceded to eventually.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8941781/David-Cameron-faces-another-revolt-from-the-ranks-as-Tory-rebels-demand-referendum-on-euro-deal.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16063911
Boris Johnson adds to Tory ER referendum pressure

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16077990
Saving the euro and his party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16075890
France and Germany urge common taxes in eurozone

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16076468
Merkozy taxes adds to pressure on Cameron

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16070611
Interesting article on European Parliament group.

Battle lines drawn

Sources in the German government are playing down the likelihood of a successful outcome of the EU summit. It is a well used stratagem to play down the chances of success before an important event, but it strikes a discordant note in view of the upbeat initial response to the Merkel/Sarkozy meeting.

As this blog has stated before one o th key issues is what happens after the summit meeting? How will decisions taken be implemented, what is the process? Much will depend on what is decided: will it be the 17 eurozone countries which have to agree the way forward or the 27 EU countries and the risks of referenda. Would a referendum decision by Ireland potentially scupper the whole process?

An excellent article on what happens next: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802221,00.html

In the UK the Prime Minister David Cameron is coming under severe pressure, particularly from Conservative MPs, as he seeks to do what is necessary to save the eurozone (a forlorn hope?) as well as securing protection from a financial services tax, repatriating some powers and binding undertakings that the 17 eurozone countries will not form a cabal that will dominate the EU to the potential detriment of the 10 non-eurozone countries in membership of the EU. I fear there will be a lot of disgrunted MPs following the summit.

The UK government has stated there will not be a referendum on any changes within the EU goverance structure as they will not involve the transfer of any powers from the UK to the EU, particularly if the Rompuy protocol proposals are adopted. Opponents argue that this is a sleight of hand, as a two-tier Europe will inevitably reduce the UK's power within the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8940014/Eurozone-debt-crisis-David-Cameron-failing-to-stand-up-for-Britain-says-Douglas-Carswell.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100013687/camerons-threat-to-veto-treaty-change-is-just-hot-air/

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/now-boris-piles-more-referendum-pressure-on-cameron.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100122195/pmqs-exposes-david-camerons-vulnerability-on-europe/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100122156/david-cameron-gets-bitten-by-ed-miliband-on-europe-then-mauled-by-owen-paterson/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100122168/pmqs-flashman-meets-his-waterloo-as-ed-miliband-looks-more-eurosceptic-than-our-tory-pm/

UPDATE from Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802299,00.html
Four ideas to save the common currency.

Further sources: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013697/if-one-eu-bail-out-fund-flops-create-two/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100122263/if-were-not-pressing-for-a-repatriation-of-power-what-was-all-the-eurosceptic-rhetoric-for/ leading on to: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100096857/its-precisely-because-we-need-domestic-reform-that-we-must-leave-the-eu/

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

The temperature is rising

Plenty of heat being generated, but will there be light?

The link below leads to a report on Cameron's negotiating position at the imminent EU summit. Will he achieve his desired outcomes? We shall know soon, but of one thing we can be sure: it will not stop the clamour for repatriation of powers or withdrawal from the EU. What happens should Cameron use the veto? Uncharted waters. However we must keep firmly in view that the proposals from Merkozy and von Rompuy only deal with control and enforcement of national budgets and have nothing to offer issues of growth and dealing with the democratic deficit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8939421/Eurozone-debt-crisis-safeguard-the-City-or-Ill-veto-new-EU-treaty-warns-David-Cameron.html

The Rompuy document: http://www.scribd.com/doc/74989322/Van-Rompuy-report-Towards-a-stronger-economic-union . See also: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16062378

The impression is that the EU elites still do not 'get it'. In this context an interesting report on comments by Jack Straw.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8938484/The-arrogance-of-eurozone-elites-could-kill-the-European-Union.html

Finally the Germans are becoming nervous as citizens of other nations begin to draw comparisons with the less savoury aspects of German history.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801982,00.html
Europe shudders at Germany's new-found power.

Heating up nicely.

Fresh fields

I joined the Conservative Party four years ago and since then have kept a low profile as I have no ambition to climb the greasy poll of politics. A few months ago I was added to the local government candidates' panel (having been encouraged to apply) but I shall not be standing next May as I declined to put my name forward for vacancies.

Tonight I am going to the AGM of the branch in my ward. It will be the first meeting of the party I have attended, except for the candidates' interview panel. I have been invited to put my name forward for a position within the branch and it would have been rude to refuse. However, I shall be content if other members fill the vacancies.

Update: By the end of the meeting I was elected to the position of chairman of the branch and as one of the branch's representatives on the constituency association executive council.

An uneasy calm

The lull before the storm? The markets are marking time, waiting for the outcome of the EU summit. Next week could see a veritable storm, but which way will markets move? The hope must be upwards, but the fear is that there will be a negative reaction to the outcome of the summit.

The portents for good news are thin on the ground, the likelihood the news will be bad is a strongly held view.

The Standard & Poor's assessment of the position in the eurozone has gone down like a lead balloon. What did S & P say?

"Policymakers appear to have acted only in response to mounting market pressures, rather than pro-actively leading market expectations in a way that might have better supported and strengthened investor confidence. We take the view that the defensive and piecemeal nature of this response has helped expand the crisis of confidence in the eurozone."

IMF chief Christine Lagarde was equally dismissive of the Merkozy plan. "It’s not in itself sufficient and a lot more will be needed for the overall situation to be properly addressed and for confidence to return."

See: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013647/sp-has-no-choice-euroland-risks-bankruptcy-on-currrent-policies/ and

UPDATE: From Spiegel on S&P downgrade fears: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,802244,00.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8937300/The-fog-on-the-Rhines-all-mein-all-mein-the-fog-on-the-Rhines-all-mein.html

To add insult to injury the EFSF bailout fund may be downgraded:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8938191/SandP-puts-EFSF-bailout-fund-on-review-for-downgrade.html

An interesting report from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16045668 which includes the following analysis.

Analysis

Chris Morris BBC News, Brussels

Diplomats from some of the smaller member states say they need to have a look at the fine print of the Franco-German proposals, because they want to know exactly how they plan to make this work.

It was important, they believe, to have an aura of confidence and togetherness about them at the beginning of this difficult week, but of course that aura was rapidly punctured by the news from Standard and Poor's. So we're still at a very difficult position and there's no guarantee that all countries will automatically sign off on whatever France and Germany suggest.

There's a general feeling that some sovereignty will have to be handed over. The critical question is who to. The smaller countries and Germany would like the European Commission to have a role in that. But France has always been suspicious of handing too much power to institutions in Brussels and would prefer to see those powers still in the hands of member states.

The issue of democratic legitimacy looms large. What should be the role of the European Parliament? How will the electorates of the sovereign states be given a say on the proposals? The omens are not good. the poor bloody infantry, the citizenry are mere onlookers. Twice in the last hundred years the citizens of Europe have paid the price for political hubris. This time it is not war but austerity being imposed as a consequence of the decision to create a flawed structure - the eurozone.

In the UK attempts are being made to ramp up the pressure on Cameron to hold a referendum.

See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8937469/Debt-crisis-Tory-Eurosceptic-Douglas-Carswell-turns-up-heat-on-Cameron-over-referendum.html

Local government financing

I came across this article recently:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/8933384/Local-councils-turn-to-the-bond-markets-to-pay-for-infrastructure-projects.html#disqus_thread

It will be interesting to see if many councils go down this route. It has attractions as it will enable capital schemes to proceed without making serious inroads into a Council's reserves. All it requires is a modicum of creative thinking. Ah well, sounded like a good idea.

Eurozone not saved yet.

I had planned to refrain from futher comment on the eurozone crisis until after the EU summit, but events today have done nothing to persuade me that we are any nearer a solution to the problem than before the Sarkozy/Merkel meeting. It is all very well planning for the future, but the problem is here and now.

For opinions on the meeting see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8936828/Euro-enters-the-last-chance-saloon.html and

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013624/zilch-again-form-merkozy/

See also: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801858,00.html

The bombshell from Standard & Poor's this evening could derail any rescue strategy. See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8937162/SandP-threat-of-rating-cuts-may-hit-eurozone-rescue.html and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16042346

Some other interesting links:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121724/a-eurozone-treaty-and-the-merkozy-challenge-to-britain-in-or-out-mr-cameron/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8934421/Eurozone-leaders-need-to-agree-on-a-plan-for-deeper-fiscal-union.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8937224/Heroic-Ireland-can-do-no-more-it-is-up-to-Europe-now.html

Monday, 5 December 2011

SEAM steams

The Southborough Environmental Action Group (SEAM) at the forefront of opposition to Tesco building a supermarket in Southbrough. In recent weeks it has ratcheted up its campaign and is focusing its fire on Southborough TownCouncil.

Town councillors and councillors who are members of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council are under close scrutiny.

SEAM has an excellent informative website well worth returning to for updates.

http://www.seam.org.uk/

Cameron's dilemma

The focus of attention is shifting to how David Cameron will play his cards (insignificant as they are) at the forthcoming EU summit. Not being in the eurozone makes the UK a peripheral player in sorting out the wreckage, nevertheless the impact of changes made to the governance of the eurozone will impact heavily. The eurozone 'bloc' will be able to outvote the ten nations not in the zone. The risk is not only of a two-tier EU, but one in which the seventeen eurozone countries can act in concert against the non-eurozone members. We could however finish up with even more tiers as I have argued before on this blob. See *

Cameron is also faced with the problem of the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party clamouring for repatriation of powers or even outright withdrawal from the EU. He has been bruised by the 81 Conservative MPs who rebelled against a three-line whip after the EU referendum debate and by the behaviour of Mr Clegg, the Deputy Prime-Minister who has conveniently forgotten the Liberal Democrat pledge on a referendum made before the last general election.

Demands for a referendum are becoming more strident and more serious for Cameron. Ian Duncan Smith, regarded by many in the Conservative Party as one of the most successful ministers in the Coalition government, has added his voice to the clamour for a referendum. He has form as an opponent of EU integration, witness his opposition to the Maastricht Treaty.

Ever since the fateful decision of Edward Heath to take the UK into what is now the EU, 'Europe' has been a divisive influence within the Conservative Party. In recent years many Conservatives have decamped to the United Kingdom Independence Party. Although UKIP has had no success at Westminster elections, it influenced the result of the 2010 general election to the extent that in some seats Conservatives failed to win, thereby thwarting an overall majority for Cameron.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8933481/Poll-boost-for-David-Cameron-ahead-of-EU-showdown.html

* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/8932819/The-UK-must-stand-up-against-Brussels.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8933773/Eurozone-crisis-The-changes-ahead-need-the-will-of-the-people.html

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/vote-for-an-eu-referendum-and-youll-plunge-britains-economy-into-chaos.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121561/iain-duncan-smith-on-david-cameron-treaty-change-and-a-european-referendum/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8934746/Iain-Duncan-Smith-calls-for-referendum-on-European-fiscal-union.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8935685/Downing-St-insists-there-will-be-no-EU-referendum-despite-Iain-Duncan-Smiths-demands.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8934867/David-Cameron-needs-to-keep-his-word-on-EU-reform.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100121605/euro-crisis-why-david-cameron-should-take-the-german-threat-seriously/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100121724/a-eurozone-treaty-and-the-merkozy-challenge-to-britain-in-or-out-mr-cameron/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801756,00.html UK obstructing EU foreign policy.

A cure for insomnia

Should nothing else work, a read of the European Parliament website is guaranteed to send you to sleep....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

See: http://www.theparliament.com/home/

However the website has had some critical articles posted on it recently, far removed from the usual fare of balm and self-congratulation.

See: http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/former-eu-commissioner-says-break-up-of-euro-is-inevitable/

http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/eu-sidelined-at-crunch-global-aid-summit/

Could it be that the comatose group, otherwise known as Members of the European Parliament, are beginning to realise something is not as it should be in the European Project.

In this context see:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8933236/Eurozone-crisis-the-US-has-to-ride-to-the-rescue-once-again.html

Angela Merkel is now making seriously uncompromising noises about fiscal union: it is to go ahead, whatever anybody else says or thinks. No more messing. And Nicolas Sarkozy seems to be accepting this – for the moment. But watch this space. Rather belatedly, the European Parliament has woken up to the threat this represents to democratic principle: it has announced that if tax and spending policy is to be decided centrally by the EU, then it, being the only body elected by the people, should have co-responsibility for those decisions with the European Commission. In other words, since fiscal policy will be out of the hands of national governments, and therefore beyond the reach of a population’s own democratic process, it really ought to be accountable to some representative body. (The most extraordinary thing about this is that it was just an afterthought.)

More Yuk

My antipathy to awards schemes is well documented on this blog. Tunbridge Wells Borough Council has announced its Love Where We Live Awards 2012, which runs to six categories.

My objection is twofold

1. The vast majority of individuals engaged in supporting others neither do it for awards, nor do they seek them.. Unfortunately there are a few 'gong' chasers.

2. The Awards take the form of a competition with 'winners'. Frankly I find it insulting that individuals are categorised as being in some way better than the other participants. Of course we will hear the mantra: everyone is a winner, but the reality is that some will be judged to be better than others. One wonders what the criteria are upon which the winner are chosen by the 'independent judging panel'. What are their claims to competence?

Speeding Vehicles in Rusthall (3)

First, an apology. In an earlier post I stated that the cost of the traffic speed indicators to be erected in Lower Green Road was £4,500. The local press carried an article last week stating the cost would be in the region of £8,000!

The idea that such indicators will slow down traffic is preposterous. The Slow Down on Sherwood group has evidence that confirms indicators are having little effect in Birken Road/ Liptraps Lane and that a police car registered over 30mph.

The traffic calming measure introduced in Lamberhurst is a mixture of humps and 'elbows'. At the elbows the road is reduced to a single lane with traffic in one direction having precedence.

Traffic is slowed down in Lower Green Road by parked vehicles which are in effect 'elbows'. It would cost more to install elbows, but they are more effective than a flashing sign.

The one consolation is that the cost of the speed indicators is being met by the county council and not the parish council.

What is needed is a safe crossing for pedestrians in the vicinity of the White Hart public house.

Sunday, 4 December 2011

EU/eurozone articles: links.

Handbag time

And the winner is?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069685/Bosnia-Bob-vs-Blond-Bombshell-Tory-MPs-email-row-threatens-derail-election-bid.html

Promises, promises.

Not worth the paper they are written on:

Two-faced Liberal Democrats

Taken from: http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/12/vote-for-an-eu-referendum-and-youll-plunge-britains-economy-into-chaos.html:

The European Union may be about to change fundamentally but that doesn't mean the British people will get a referendum to approve or reject that change. The so-called 'referendum lock' passed by the Coalition is only triggered when powers pass from Britain to the EU. Ministers decide when and if those powers have passed and the suspicion is that a move towards fiscal union by the €urozone's seventeen will be interpreted as not affecting UK sovereignty. That was certainly Nick Clegg's position on this morning's Andrew Marr programme*:

NICK CLEGG: Well I don't think there needs to be a referendum for the simple reason that the change...
ANDREW MARR interrupts: The Prime Minister's promised one. If there is a treaty change, he's promised a referendum.
NICK CLEGG: No, the referendum will only take place if there is an additional surrender of sovereignty from us to the European Union, to Brussels.
ANDREW MARR: I thought any substantial treaty change will trigger a referendum. That's what David Cameron said.
NICK CLEGG: No, no, no. Let me be very clear. The test, which we've legislated on, is if we, the United Kingdom, give up more sovereignty in a big way to the European Union.

Compare and contrast with the following:

Come on Clegg, let's see you keep ONE promise.

Saturday, 3 December 2011

Lewes-Uckfield railway line.

So an extra £500 million has been 'found' to buy off some of the objectors to the HS2 railway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/8932224/Extra-500m-for-high-speed-rail-tunnel-to-protect-Chilterns.html

See also: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/8933742/8.5-billion-black-hole-from-HS2-high-speed-rail-link-report.html

In Lancashire the Todmorden Curve is to be re-instated to shorten travel time between Burnley and Manchester.

Wales and Scotland have both been re-opening railway lines. In Scotland the latest scheme is to re-open part of the old Waverley route into the Borders which has a sparse population when compared to East Sussex.

Yet in East Sussex there is no progress in re-opening the Lewes-Uckfield Railway. It is forgotten often that the main reason this line closed was because it was in the way of a grandiose East Sussex County Council scheme to build a relief road in Lewes. At the time of closure more passengers travelled south from Uckfield to Lewes and Brighton than northwards. Since the introduction of new trains passenger numbers have soared, to the extent that it is envisaged twelve carriage trains will be needed.

Re-opening the route and electrifying the line between Oxted and Lewes would provide a diversionary route for the London-Brighton main line via Gatwick. Much more importantly, it would provide new travel opportunities for people living in Edenbridge and Uckfield and relieve traffic congestion. East Sussex is one of the few (only?) English counties in the south without a motorway running through it.

Although the route near Lewes has been built over, there is an alternative which would make use of the original line which approached Lewes from the north. This line was closed and the line diverted to approach Lewes from the east. It is feasible to extend the railway from Eridge to Tunbridge Wells Central and thence to Tonbridge. Better connectivity by public transport between West Kent and Brighton is vital to the economic future of both.

Looking at other re-opened lines it beggars belief that the Lewes-Uckfield line has not re-opened. The blame for this rests squarely with East Sussex County Council.

Europe's crunch day: 9th December

It is no exaggeration to say that next Friday is the day which will determine Europe's destiny. The EU summit meeting will determine the road Europe will take: either towards fiscal union and the creation of a United States of Europe, or towards disintegration of the EU project and world wide economic depression.

Undoubtedly there will be much conjecture during next week. For my part I shall await the outcome of the deliberations, so you will be spared further postings on this subject until the decisions of the summit are known.

Two articles you may wish to peruse:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8931546/The-eurozone-crisis-we-need-more-than-prayers-now.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932490/Angela-Merkel-vows-to-create-a-fiscal-union.html

Friday, 2 December 2011

A blast from the past

Two articles on Jacques Delors and the eurozone. Not his fault it has gone wrong, after all he was only the architect and not the adminstrator of the edifice. Blame the politicians.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932647/Euro-doomed-from-start-says-Jacques-Delors.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932640/Jacques-Delors-interview-Euro-would-still-be-strong-if-it-had-been-built-to-my-plan.html

A quiet day in Euroland, for a change.

The markets are holding their collective breath as they await the EU summit next week. Will the politicians, at last, come up with set of proposals that last a week? The summit is being trailed as the 'big one' which will make major decisions on the direction the eurozone will travel: towards fiscal integration. Already, there are rumblings that France and Germany are not of one accord as to the mechanism for enforcing fiscal policy.

Three other major issues which need to be resolved:

1. How to enhance greatly the democratic process within the EU

2. How to overcome the problem of eurozone countries with weak economies to ensure that the citizens of those countries do not suffer for many years for the errors of the past. The simple answer would be to reduce the size of the eurozone or to have two eurozones. This option does not appear to be part of the Sarkozy-Merkel axis's thinking.

3. Will the ECB be given the powers of a reserve bank? Unlikely, in the scenario being proffered by M & T.

For the United Kingdom, will the likelihood of treaty change be the opportunity for repatriation of powers, or indeed for a UK referendum? A two-tier Europe looks inevitable (I prefer this to the phrase 'two-speed' which suggests moving in the same direction but at different paces) with the UK on the periphery. The UK government has stated that dealing with the eurozone's problems is the priority, but it will be in severe political difficulty should it fail to negotiate significant powers being repatriated the UK. See: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sarkozy-wrongfoots-cameron-as-he-calls-for-twotier-europe-6270905.html

Some pertinent links below:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8929431/Germany-remains-oblivious-to-apocalyptic-warnings.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801338,00.html
New fiscal unity for Europe

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801156,00.html
ECB hints at pending eurozone integration

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8929042/Can-the-euro-be-saved.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013600/germany-is-the-ultimate-victim-of-emu/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15997784
Merkel urges eurozone fiscal union.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16000335
Eurozone solution in sight?

Thursday, 1 December 2011

Touching, isn't it?

As the eurozone edges ever closer to disaster, it has fallen to Mr Sarkozy to reassure the markets and state his undying loyalty to marching in ever closer step with Germany (though not diminishing France's sovereignty!).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8929562/Nicolas-Sarkozy-promises-no-eurozone-member-will-default.html

The fault lines remain: is the way forward that of fiscal union, or imposing penalties on nations which breach agreed fiscal rules? What is the role of the ECB to be? Will a QE monetary policy be implemented through the ECB to stave off recession?

In recent days there has been a glimmer that there may be a little loosening of the German position on funding the EFSF (via the IMF), but the word form Berlin is not encouraging on other aspects of the role of the ECB.

However the fundamental problem remains. How is the disparity between the economies of the nations in the eurozone to be resolved? The only policy offered so far is one of interminable austerity and the imposition of governments which take their orders, not from national parliaments, but from the EU Commissars. Are these states to remain second class states within the eurozone: trapped in a currency and interest rates set for Germany's benefit? Sarkozy offers no hope for these states, just more of the same.

Remember this from Mr Sarkozy in July?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8653903/Eurozone-leaders-hail-leap-towards-economic-union.html

Gives you confidence......it doesn't?

Nothing new here.....well, almost nothing

Interesting article. See link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8929431/Germany-remains-oblivious-to-apocalyptic-warnings.html

Reiterates much of what has appeared in posts to this blog in recent days. It bears repetition. Reports tonight that France and Germany are meeting next Monday to stitch up a deal to put to the Council of Ministers later next week.

The clear message that comes through is that Germany is seeking to protect its interests come what may and wishes to see the eurozone adhere to rules which benefit Germany. The founders of the united Europe vision saw it as a means of reigning in Germany and harnessing its power for the greater European good. Now the chips are down, the vision is a busted flush. Like it or not, and however much Poodle Sarkozy may whimper (See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15991031), the outcome of this will either be a smashing up of the EU or a Greater Germany.

See below an excellent article on the need for QE to resolve the eurozone's immediate crisis.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013558/you-are-all-wrong-printing-money-can-halt-europes-crisis/

The crisis can undoubtedly be halted immediately by the ECB. The bank can reflate Club Med off the reefs. It chooses not to act for political reasons because this mean higher inflation for Germany. That is the dirty secret. Everybody must be crucified to keep German internal inflation under 2pc.

Twilight of the Gods

The eurozone saga has had more twists and turns than Wagner's Ring. Now we are in the final act. Will Merkel ride into the flames taking Europe with her? Next week's meeting of EU leaders will be the crunch. Unless there is a dramatic U turn in Germany's opposition to the role of the ECB as a lender of last resort and the issuing of stability (euro) bonds, the financial markets will call 'time' on the euro, sovereign debt will become unsellable and the economic outlook will take an even greater turn for the worse. The lights will indeed be going out all over Europe and the rest of the world for that matter.

As I mentioned yesterday the intervention of central banks to pump liquidity into the system merely buys time for Europe to begin to sort out the mess. The omens do not look good. For the 'gods' of Europe, the political elites of nations and the European Commission commissars, the game will be up. Civil unrest on a massive scale will spread across Europe.

See:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8926896/Central-bank-deal-should-remind-eurozone-leaders-of-looming-disaster.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8926987/Fed-saves-Europes-banks-as-ECB-stands-pat.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8927169/Debt-Crisis-US-rescue-act-is-a-sign-of-the-mess-were-in.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8927918/ECBs-Draghi-We-need-fiscal-union-not-bank-intervention.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,801071,00.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15984291
Bank of England warning on eurozone.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15981629
ECB concerns

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801156,00.html
Another chink of light? But too little far too late?

For a different viewpoint on the EU see:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/petermullen/100121010/if-christianity-goes-so-does-europe/

Wednesday, 30 November 2011

German thaw?

Following the initiative of central banks led by the USA Federal Reserve to save the Eurozone, news that there is a thaw in the German position.

The Daily Telegraph is reporting thus:

'Germany is apparently willing to boost the cash available to the IMF via "bilateral loans", after having said at the G20 summit in Cannes in November that it was against such a move. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said this evening:

We are prepared to increase the resources of the IMF through bilateral loans. If the IMF wants to widen its freedom to take action by increasing the special drawing rights, then we are prepared to talk about it. But, to be clear, this is about IMF instruments. Naturally, the details would have to be discussed. Bilateral loans are possible in principle.

This could mean that the 17 eurozone nations lend money directly to the IMF, which then passes it on to struggling states. This gets around the problem with the ECB, which is barred from doing exactly that. '

It is all convoluted. The sooner the ECB has direct powers the better.

Light relief

LAS VEGAS CHURCHES ACCEPT GAMBLING CHIPS

THIS MAY COME AS A SURPRISE TO THOSE OF YOU NOT LIVING IN LAS VEGAS , BUT THERE ARE More CATHOLIC CHURCHES THAN CASINOS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY, SOME WORSHIPERS AT SUNDAY SERVICES WILL GIVE CASINO CHIPS RATHER THAN CASH WHEN THE BASKET IS PASSED.

SINCE THEY GET CHIPS FROM MANY DIFFERENT CASINOS, THE CHURCHES HAVE DEVISED A METHOD TO COLLECT THE OFFERINGS.

THE CHURCHES SEND ALL THEIR COLLECTED CHIPS TO A NEARBY FRANCISCAN MONASTERY FOR SORTING AND THEN THE CHIPS ARE TAKEN TO THE CASINOS OF ORIGIN AND CASHED IN.

THIS IS DONE BY THE CHIP MONKS

Original Harry Ramsdens to close?

Back in the early 1970s I, along with a few colleagues, had to attend a residential course in Huddersfield.

One evening we set off for the bright lights of Bradford. We didn't find any. A visit to a pub with damp seeping down the walls was short-lived. We headed for the cinema. What a flea-pit. The film was terrible and we had the ignomy of being thrown out for being too vociferous in our condemnation.

Bradford, we decided, was not for us. Off we went to Harry Ramsdens in Guiseley for fish and chips. Excellent fare which made up for our earlier disappointments. On the way out one of our colleagues made the mistake of saying that he thought the fish and chips had been cooked in oil. Cue two members of the kitchen staff to frogmarch our colleague into the kitchen. He returned chastened to inform us that he was mistaken: not cooking oil but beef dripping was used.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/30/harry-ramsdens-original-fish-and-chip-shop-to-close_n_1120118.html

We roared back to Huddersfield, literally. Our car had lost the rear end of its exhaust.

A chink of light

As siren voices warn that the eurozone has only ten days to be saved, a chink of light that might just work and buy time for the eurozone and the EU to sort themselves out.

The light emanates from the decision of central banks to take the initiative to ease liquidity in the banking system:

See:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8926014/Central-banks-act-to-ease-eurozone-credit-crisis.html
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2011/138.htm

Quote from the Daily Telegraph:

Cutting swap costs is the equivalent of interest rate cuts. These banks are now basically providing unlimited US dollars to banks with which to fund themselves. The banks will be hoping this is a turning point in the crisis.
We do not know what caused this decision, we may never know, but the smart money is on the fact that yields on one-year German debt went negative this morning (paying Germany to lend it money).
This may have been a signal that the money markets were a short shove away from complete collapse.

So whilst the politicians dither the central banks come up with a co-ordinated response.

Meanwhile back in disneyland the politicians continue to fret and disagree.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8925250/Ten-days-to-rescue-euro-as-leaders-call-for-IMF-funds.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,800762,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,800700,00.html

Two interesting interviews:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,800351,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,800421,00.html

Obviously the intervention of the central banks of itself will not save the euro, but it takes some pressure off the banks, improves sentiment in the markets and may be an element of the key to boost the EFSF. However the role of the ECB has still to be resolved.

All the financial manoeuvring does not resolve basic problems within the eurozone. Structural changes are essential, not only in eurozone membership, but also how the EU/eurozone manages financial issues. The issue of democratic deficit has to be addressed.

UPDATE: 30 NOVEMBER:

The EU's euro commissioner Olli Rehn has just warned that leaders must take a leap of faith with cross-border integration at next week's summit - or see the bloc break up.

We have arrived at a point in time where serious choices and commitments have to be made.

Economic and monetary union will either have to be completed through much deeper integration or we will have to accept a gradual disintegration of over half a century of European integration.

The problem will be attempting to get a compromise on treaty changes among all 27 states, something which many believe is highly unlikely. One solution could be a series of "inter-governmental agreements" that link small collections of countries.

See also: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15958461

On the central banks bazooka:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100120865/coordinated-global-bank-intervention-in-the-euro-crisis-is-a-defining-moment/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15966753
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15965639

See also: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8926403/More-QE-is-not-the-antidote-to-the-eurozone-crisis.html