Interesting By-election in Sherwood

Next Thursday is election day in the Sherwood Ward by-election in Tunbridge Wells. The seat was for a number of years a safe Labour seat, prior to that the electorate succeeded in voting in a Conservative, a Labour candidate and a Liberal Democrat.

Following a borough-wide revision of ward boundaries Sherwood became a relatively safe Conservative seat and in the normal course of events the Conservatives would be expected to hold the seat which is vacant following the death of a councillor.

However, we are not in 'normal' times.  The Coalition parties are coming under pressure as the effects of the Budget and Comprehensive Spending Review begin to trickle through.  The Liberal Democrats have had a bad press over the tuition fees 'broken pledge'.  Labour is suffering as it seeks to shake off the albatross of the Brown government and also the problem of a new Leader who so far has failed to make any impact.

Nevertheless, I would have expected the Conservatives to hold the seat, particularly as they have organised postal votes better than the other major parties.

UKIP is fielding a candidate but has not made much impression at previous elections.  The new kid on the block is the English Democrat party which is fielding a well known local community activist whom I imagine will secure a goodly number of personal votes.

The recent divisions in the Conservative Party in Tunbridge Wells has, in my opinion, thrown the election wide-open. The selection process for Conservative candidates at next May's elections has proved to be divisive.  It is reported that one councillor was deselected because he supported the Council Leader!  Put it another way - party loyalty was not a deciding factor.

This week, the Conservative Group on the Council passed a resolution expressing no confidence in the Leader of the Council.  The Leader has not resigned, so presumably he will remain Leader unless he loses a confidence vote at a full Council meeting.  The Conservative candidate in Sherwood seems to be distancing himself from the Leader.

The shambles will no doubt exercise the minds of the electors of Sherwood when they vote next Thursday or post their ballot papers.  To  whom will disaffected Tories  turn, or will they refuse to vote?  My very informal soundings in Sherwood suggest that the Liberal Democrats and the English Democrats will be the main beneficiaries and UKIP will pick up a few votes.  Labour will be fighting hard to maintain its 'core' vote and has a strong candidate who is a former Labour councillor for Sherwood.

Too close to call?